Few Weeks Away From Financial Crisis; Bear Market In 'Striking Distance' | Chris Vermeulen
Speakers
Chris Vermeulen
— Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders
Summary
Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders says the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are close to bear market territory and likely have more near-term downside before a multi-month bounce, followed by a larger crisis. He is bearish on crude oil, energy stocks, Bitcoin, and real estate, especially Florida, while favoring cash and waiting for better entries in bonds and gold. He also expects a weaker Canadian dollar if oil breaks down.
- Chris Vermeulen warns the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are near bear market territory and sees further downside targets before a multi-month bounce.
- He expects Magnificent 7 weakness to lead the market lower and says Bitcoin has about 15% downside with similar tech-stock correlation.
- He is bearish on crude oil and energy stocks, and sees a weaker Canadian dollar if oil breaks $65.
- He is cautious on real estate, especially Florida, citing record inventory, weak demand, and Canadian sellers.
- He says bonds are trying to bottom but he wants a clear uptrend before buying; TLT could become an opportunity later.
- He remains bullish long-term on gold but thinks it is in a late blowoff phase and prefers a better entry after a pullback.
- He favors cash and defensive positioning and warns of a possible financial crisis after the next bounce.
Ideas
Magnificent 7 bearish, about 15% downside.
The Magnificent 7 and other powerhouse stocks have bearish price action pointing to much lower pricing. They are doing heavy lifting to the downside, and Chris sees about 15% downside in Magnificent Seven stocks, similar to Bitcoin, which will drag the Nasdaq and S&P 500 lower and create investor panic.
S&P 500 bear market target 5,183.
Chris expects the S&P 500 to enter bear market territory soon, with a Fibonacci extension/bear flag target around 5,183 (down about 15% from the top) and another roughly 7–12% decline over the next one to two weeks. He believes the market top is in and that after a multi-month bounce the market could roll over into a much larger 35–50% correction/financial crisis.
Nasdaq/QQQ bearish, another 11% downside.
Tech/NASDAQ is underperforming the bounce and has a similar bear flag. Chris sees QQQ/NASDAQ potentially dropping nearly 11% more over the next week or two, for a total roughly 22% decline, with the Magnificent 7 leading the downside.
Bonds bottoming; wait for uptrend.
Bonds have moved from a topping/bearish phase into a stage-one bottom. The small bull flag and inverse 10-year yield pattern point to higher bond prices and lower yields. Chris says bonds will become a good trade/opportunity later this year or in the next couple months, but he will not move until a clear uptrend.
Gold late-stage blowoff; wait for correction.
Chris is still bullish on gold with a next upside target around $3,275 and potential for another 4–5% rally, but he thinks gold is in a late blowoff phase after hitting 20-year cycle targets. When the broader market enters a stage 4 collapse, he expects gold—and likely silver and miners—to pull back significantly to $2,500 or even $2,200. He is not a buyer here and prefers a better entry over the next 12 months before the next major rally toward much higher long-term targets.
Cash is a powerful defensive position.
With no high-probability trades and worsening market risk, cash is one of the best and most powerful defensive positions. Chris is in cash in one strategy and advocates stepping aside to protect capital and lifestyle.
Housing reset; real estate is unsafe.
The housing market is set for a big reset: record new-home inventory in the southern U.S., no real demand, millions of homes for sale not selling, and sellers needing to cut prices more. Chris is selling/liquidating a real estate property and thinks it is not a safe place to park wealth; he expects a year or longer wait for the bottom.
Florida real estate faces supply wave.
Florida real estate is especially vulnerable: record southern U.S. new-home inventory, Canadian snowbirds/owners angered by tariffs and planning to sell when they return in spring, adding supply on top of already high inventory. Chris expects Florida real estate to be "absolutely slaughtered."
Crude oil breaks $65 support.
Crude oil has a bearish pennant/continuation pattern, and the critical $65 support is likely to break. The measured move implies lower prices over the next year or two, and an oil breakdown would signal recessionary pressure on business, travel, and products.
Oil breakdown weakens Canadian dollar.
An oil breakdown would be bad for Canada and the Canadian dollar/loonie because the currency follows oil closely; lower oil implies a weaker loonie.
Energy stocks face major selloff.
Chris is very bearish on oil and expects energy stocks to have one of the biggest haircuts. There is a major divergence: oil has fallen for years while energy stocks rose; when oil breaks down, likely with bad economic news, energy equities could be sold off in a huge way and hit the broader market.
Bitcoin double top, 15% downside.
Bitcoin formed a double top and multiple bear flags; the next downside level is around $72,000, roughly 15% lower. It is now tightly correlated with the Nasdaq and Magnificent 7 because the same investor base trades both, so weakness in stocks should pull Bitcoin down.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published March 30, 2025, features Chris Vermeulen discussing MAGS, SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD, CASH, XLRE, Florida real estate, WTI, CAD, XLE, BTC. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Chris Vermeulen · Tickers: MAGS, SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD, CASH, XLRE, Florida real estate, WTI, CAD, XLE, BTC