30-Year Real Yield Near Financial Crisis Level

Summary

Subadra Rajappa and Vineer Bhansali discuss the surge in long-end Treasury real yields to nearly two-decade highs. Rajappa points to geopolitical risk, rising oil prices, heavy bond supply from corporates and hyperscalers, and deficit concerns as drivers of the bear steepening in the yield curve. Bhansali argues the Fed lacks the tools and credibility to control supply-side inflation, leaving the market unanchored. The conversation highlights mounting pressure on bonds and a regime shift toward a bear steepener.

• 30-year Treasury real yields hit highest in nearly two decades.
• Geopolitical risk and higher oil prices stoke inflation expectations.
• Massive corporate and hyperscaler bond issuance adds supply pressure.
• Bear steepening emerges as the curve unwinds prior flattening.
• Fed credibility seen as damaged, markets discount its guidance.
• Deficit concerns resurface, pushing global bond yields higher.
• Investors increasingly need protection from policy uncertainty.