Four Years Into Putin’s War, Are We Any Closer to a Peace Deal?

Tannenbaum highlights that "We're beginning to see prosecutions in Germany, in the Netherlands, for companies, for people that flaunt the sanctions." He emphasizes that "economic policy... needs actual enforcement." As enforcement shifts from policy announcements to criminal prosecutions, multinational corporations face heightened compliance risks. This drives demand for high-level regulatory consulting, forensic accounting, and risk advisory services. Oliver Wyman (owned by Marsh & McLennan - MMC) and competitors (Accenture, FTI Consulting) benefit from this complex regulatory environment. LONG Global Consulting/Advisory firms specializing in risk and compliance. Deregulation trends in the US reducing the overall global compliance burden.

Tannenbaum notes that since returning to office, President Trump has used sanctions in "two very discrete instances against Lukoil and Rosneft." While trade is generally up, these two specific entities are in the crosshairs of the current administration's limited pressure campaign. If Trump decides to "apply meaningful pressure in actions" to force Putin to the table, these specific energy giants are the named targets for escalation. AVOID specific Russian energy names due to targeted political risk, despite the broader sector's resilience. Sanctions are lifted entirely as part of a grand bargain peace deal.

Tannenbaum states, "Russia will always fight an exhaustive war... recruiting roughly 40,000 new troops a month... their push towards exhausting the Ukrainians is still the strategy." He also notes, "I think we probably will be talking about this in a year." The base case is not a near-term peace deal, but a prolonged war of attrition. This necessitates sustained demand for munitions, drones, and defense systems. Furthermore, Tannenbaum notes Europe is "taking strides... to fill in the gap left by President Trump," implying increased European defense spending (benefiting Rheinmetall and BAE Systems) to compensate for US diplomatic withdrawal. LONG Defense Prime Contractors and European Defense stocks as the conflict duration extends. A sudden, forced peace deal by the Trump administration that freezes lines of contact and reduces material support.