What Happened in China While We Looked Away | Kim Kyung-hwan, Team Lead at Hana Securities Research Center

우리가 한눈 판 사이 중국에서 벌어진 일들 | 김경환 하나증권 리서치센터 팀장 [더블 업]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 12, 2026 at 01:22  |  16:42  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Kim Kyung-hwan — Team Leader

Summary

Kim Kyung-hwan, Team Lead at Hana Securities Research Center, explains why China's macro cycle is turning and how it affects Korean equities. He highlights rising Chinese PPI, stabilizing consumption, bottoming capex, and a state-guided IPO market as drivers. He recommends raising China exposure from very low levels and favors China-linked Korean cyclicals and consumer names as well as Chinese manufacturing and semiconductor supply-chain leaders, while flagging Chinese memory IPOs as a risk for Samsung and SK hynix.

  • China's PPI has turned higher, historically benefiting Korean cyclicals such as chemicals, steel, nonferrous, battery materials, and solar.
  • China's consumption contraction is slowing, supporting Korean consumer names with China exposure such as Orion and Samyang Foods.
  • China's capex cycle is bottoming, with IPO funding directed toward strategic sectors including robots, aerospace, and semiconductors.
  • The guest recommends increasing China equity exposure from under 3% toward roughly 10%, using Hang Seng Tech, CSI 300, and ChiNext.
  • He sees Chinese semiconductor supply-chain beneficiaries from CXMT/YMTC listings, but views Chinese memory IPOs as a risk to Samsung and SK hynix.
  • He also points to Chinese manufacturing leaders in shipbuilding, biopharma, defense, and physical AI components.
  • He expects the Chinese yuan to remain strong this year.
  • US-China tensions are expected to stay in a tactical truce through the April summit, with rare earths as potential leverage.
Ideas
Kim Kyung-hwan Team Leader 2:00
China PPI lifts Korean cyclicals
China's PPI has turned higher since last year as liquidity circulates and the anti-involution policy restrains wasteful price competition and supply. Historically, rising Chinese producer prices lift Korea's China-sensitive cyclicals, starting with battery/lithium and solar, then chemicals, and later steel and nonferrous metals; he notes chemicals are already leading in Q1 and steel/nonferrous should be affected by Chinese production cuts and price increases.
Korean chemicals sector Korean Steel Sector Korean nonferrous metals sector Korean battery materials/lithium sector Korean solar sector HIGH
Kim Kyung-hwan Team Leader 4:03
China consumer recovery aids Orion, Samyang
The downturn in Chinese consumption is stopping rather than booming; middle-class households have already cut debt sharply and the pace of deleveraging is braking. That favors mid-tier consumption categories such as clothing, cosmetics, and food, and Korean listed companies with China exposure such as Orion and Samyang Foods should benefit as the contraction in related sales ends.
271560.KS 003230.KS MED
Kim Kyung-hwan Team Leader 4:42
China capex bottom aids Korean suppliers
China's capex cycle is at a bottom this year; capex in 2025-2026 should revive, financed by government-designed IPOs in strategic industries such as robots, aerospace, and semiconductors. Korean companies that supply China's production network and supply chain should benefit over the longer term.
Korean suppliers to China's manufacturing supply chain MED
Kim Kyung-hwan Team Leader 5:59
China sees commodity supercycle ahead
Within China, the market belief is that nonferrous metals, precious metals, rare earths, and chemicals are entering a big cycle, supported by China's shift away from being a global disinflation source and by the diminishing drag from property and infrastructure. The speaker cites this as a reason to look beyond tech into cyclicals.
DBB GLTR REMX Chinese chemicals sector MED
Kim Kyung-hwan Team Leader 7:11
Chinese memory IPOs are Korean chip risk
Chinese memory giants such as CXMT and YMTC are expected to list, and their IPOs could create new supply and competitive pressure on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. The speaker says the burden is real but it is too early to judge whether it breaks their leadership, making it a key risk to monitor for Korean semiconductors.
005930.KS 000660.KS MED
Kim Kyung-hwan Team Leader 8:22
China chip supply chain IPOs lift sector
China's government is using the IPO market to fund strategic industries and support valuations. CXMT is seen as the leader, and its listing, together with YMTC, should lift China's entire domestic semiconductor supply chain, including materials, equipment, and memory names; the speaker plans to follow memory companies closely from Q2.
CHIK HIGH
Kim Kyung-hwan Team Leader 12:39
Raise China allocation toward 10%
Korean investors' overseas equity exposure is heavily concentrated in US stocks, with China allocations down to under 3% from as much as 30-40%. He argues this is excessively low versus China's improving earnings and capex cycle through 2027, and he recommends raising China exposure toward around 10% in the first half as a hedge against Korea's non-semiconductor industrial competition with China, using broad China leader vehicles such as Hang Seng Tech, CSI 300, and ChiNext rather than a single hot theme.
KWEB CSI 300 Index CNXT HIGH
Kim Kyung-hwan Team Leader 13:00
Buy diversified Chinese manufacturing leaders
Chinese manufacturers have become highly competitive or leading in shipbuilding, pharmaceuticals/biotech, defense, and physical AI/robotics components. Rather than overconcentrating in one hot theme such as robots or EVs, the speaker favors a diversified basket of Chinese manufacturing leaders, which are represented in ChiNext and CSI 300, as a way to bet on China's industrial competitiveness.
Chinese shipbuilding sector KURE Chinese defense sector Chinese physical AI/robotics component supply chain MED
Kim Kyung-hwan Team Leader 16:22
Chinese yuan strength to persist
On currency, the Chinese yuan has been strong and he expects it to remain strong this year, which supports the case for China asset exposure. The transcript gives only a brief FX view and no detailed driver.
Chinese yuan (CNY) LOW
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This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published February 12, 2026, features Kim Kyung-hwan discussing Korean chemicals sector, Korean Steel Sector, Korean nonferrous metals sector, Korean battery materials/lithium sector, Korean solar sector, 271560.KS, 003230.KS, Korean suppliers to China's manufacturing supply chain, DBB, GLTR, REMX, Chinese chemicals sector, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, CHIK, KWEB, CSI 300 Index, CNXT, Chinese shipbuilding sector, KURE, Chinese defense sector, Chinese physical AI/robotics component supply chain, Chinese yuan (CNY). 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kim Kyung-hwan  · Tickers: Korean chemicals sector, Korean Steel Sector, Korean nonferrous metals sector, Korean battery materials/lithium sector, Korean solar sector, 271560.KS, 003230.KS, Korean suppliers to China's manufacturing supply chain, DBB, GLTR, REMX, Chinese chemicals sector, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, CHIK, KWEB, CSI 300 Index, CNXT, Chinese shipbuilding sector, KURE, Chinese defense sector, Chinese physical AI/robotics component supply chain, Chinese yuan (CNY)