Ideas
Micron HBM4 exclusion fear is overdone.
Micron's CFO directly rebutted reports that it would be excluded from Nvidia's Vera Rubin HBM4 supply chain, saying HBM4 qualification has begun, volumes are expanding faster than the December guidance timeline, and 2026 supply is already sold out. The company also signaled improving gross margins, and Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight while raising its target price to $450, leaving the stock near a new high after recovering the HBM4-related losses.
Astera Labs faces margin and concentration risks.
Astera Labs fell about 21% despite decent results because gross margin guidance disappointed and the large Amazon warrant deal creates customer concentration and accounting pressure, reducing gross margin by roughly 2 percentage points. Competition from Broadcom and Marvell adds further risk, so the stock faces margin and concentration concerns.
Robinhood growth story remains intact.
Robinhood fell after a crypto and trading-related earnings miss, but prediction markets nearly doubled sequentially and should grow further with the Winter Olympics, World Cup, and midterm elections. New product tests and membership initiatives continue to expand the platform, so the growth story is not broken, though crypto-linked volatility remains.
Bitcoin tests critical long-term trend support.
Bitcoin has touched the 65,000 dollar area, a key range low, and is testing a long-term trend line. Holding this area could lead to a rebound, but a decisive break would signal a prolonged correction, potentially lasting 200-300 days.
Circle benefits if stablecoin interest ban holds.
If the GENIUS Act prevents stablecoin issuers from paying interest, Circle could stop paying large distribution costs to Coinbase and other exchanges and retain more of the Treasury interest earned on USDC reserves. Distribution costs currently take over 60% of revenue, so removing them could lift operating margin from around 10% toward 60-70%; Circle is also the leading regulated stablecoin issuer with expansion into enterprise payments and EURC. Risks include JPMorgan's own stablecoin and slower USDC growth.
Strategy is better levered Bitcoin proxy.
If the crypto market turns higher, Strategy is the better choice than Circle because it acts as a roughly 1.8x levered Bitcoin proxy. The stablecoin market also depends on a healthy crypto market, but Strategy offers direct leveraged upside to Bitcoin.
AI threatens traditional SaaS business models.
AI is threatening the moats of traditional SaaS companies such as Salesforce, Adobe, and ServiceNow. Even if earnings hold up, the market may compress their multiples because AI could erode their competitive position, and these stocks have already been underperforming.
OpenAI ads threaten digital ad incumbents.
OpenAI is launching an ad-supported ChatGPT tier in the US, and its daily active users are rising after the pricing change. If ChatGPT becomes a 1-3 billion user platform, it could compete directly with Google, Meta, and Amazon in digital advertising, pressuring their ad revenue and multiples over the medium to long term.
AppLovin attractive after valuation multiple compression.
AppLovin reported very strong results with revenue up 66%, operating profit up 103%, EPS up 87%, and guidance above consensus, yet the stock fell over 30% year-to-date on AI competition fears. The forward P/E has compressed from over 70x to around 30x and possibly into the 20s, which brings it into investment territory; its ad-matching data and earnings growth remain valuable, making it attractive for long-term investors despite multiple compression risk.
Memory shortage supports AI hardware momentum.
AI infrastructure memory remains in structural shortage with a fixed oligopoly, so memory and AI hardware retain strong earnings momentum, while software faces AI-driven disruption and multiple compression. This favors AI infrastructure and memory over software in the current AI trade.
Korean market deepening supports KOSPI upside.
The Korean market is deepening as its market capitalization grows and domestic supply-demand becomes stronger, making it harder for foreign futures and options positioning to distort the index. A larger, more efficient market should improve investor trust and create a virtuous upward cycle, supporting KOSPI.
SM offers stable entertainment earnings growth.
SM Entertainment reported record quarterly operating profit with revenue of about 320 billion won and operating profit of about 54 billion won, beating consensus. The report highlights stable earnings versus peers, 2026 revenue growth of about 10%, operating profit growth of about 18%, an 18x forward P/E, a 140,000 won target price, China momentum, MD and licensing strength, and potential to break its prior high of 155,000 won.
Hyundai is undervalued robotics physical-AI play.
Hyundai Motor is seen as undervalued versus Tesla in physical AI and robotics. Boston Dynamics' Atlas shows advanced hardware and simulation-trained movement, with mass production targeted from 2028 and external customer sales planned; applying robotics valuation could re-rate Hyundai toward 20-30x P/E. KB maintains Buy and an 800,000 won target, implying 67% upside, and the CEO change toward hardware supports the mass-production phase.
SMIC benefits from China foundry demand.
SMIC reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results with revenue up 13% year-on-year, gross margin of 19%, operating profit up 40%, and utilization at 93.5%; first-quarter guidance was also solid. Goldman Sachs maintains Buy with a target price of HKD 134, implying about 87% upside, on strong China domestic demand, and the high P/E is justified because SMIC has no real domestic substitute.
This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published February 12, 2026,
features Choi Ho, Jun-hyuk, Park Se-ik, Wang Jeong
discussing MU, ALAB, HOOD, BTC, CRCL, STRATEGY, CRM, ADBE, NOW, GOOG, META, AMZN, APP, SMH, EWY, 041510.KQ, 005380.KS, 0981.HK.
14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Choi Ho,
Jun-hyuk,
Park Se-ik,
Wang Jeong
· Tickers:
MU,
ALAB,
HOOD,
BTC,
CRCL,
STRATEGY,
CRM,
ADBE,
NOW,
GOOG,
META,
AMZN,
APP,
SMH,
EWY,
041510.KQ,
005380.KS,
0981.HK
