US Sees 80-85% Chance of Iran Deal Being Signed | Balance of Power 06/12/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 12, 2026 at 23:55  |  51:23  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Ed Ludlow — Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology
Gary Gensler — Former SEC Chairman
Mike Wirth — CEO of Chevron
Chris Wright — US Energy Secretary
Kailey Leinz — Bloomberg Reporter
Jen Gavito — Senior Advisor, The Cohen Group

Summary

The episode covers SpaceX's record-breaking IPO and its market implications, including governance and lockup concerns. It also discusses a potential US-Iran deal with 80-85% odds, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and energy market impacts. Energy Secretary Chris Wright touts US production strength, while Chevron's CEO warns of tightening oil inventories. Additional segments touch on the UFC fight at the White House and the Paramount-Warner Bros merger approval.

  • SpaceX surged 19% in its IPO, making Elon Musk the first trillionaire.
  • Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler highlights SpaceX's atypical lockup and governance risks.
  • US officials see an 80-85% chance of signing an Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warns oil inventories are moving from comfortable to uncomfortably low.
  • Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the US has become the world's largest crude exporter, insulating domestic consumers.
  • A federal judge cleared the way for a UFC fight on the White House South Lawn.
  • The DOJ approved the Paramount-Warner Bros merger.
Ideas
Ed Ludlow Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology 4:28
SpaceX's stock will be driven by operational milestones for Starship, which recently gained a central role in NASA's Artemis program, including a planned 2027 crew docking with Starship in low-Earth orbit; every test and landing attempt will be a catalyst.
Chris Wright US Energy Secretary 35:29
US energy producers thriving as global swing supplier.
The US energy sector has massively ramped production to fill global supply gaps caused by the Iran conflict, making the US the world's largest crude exporter; domestic producers are much more insulated from disruptions, keeping US gasoline prices lower than abroad and highlighting a resilient, competitive US energy sector poised to thrive.
Mike Wirth CEO of Chevron 37:54
Tight inventories and geopolitical risk favor higher oil.
Oil inventories are declining and moving from comfortable to soon to be uncomfortably low; the market is discounting the risk of a failed Iran deal and potential supply disruptions; temporary measures can only last so long, and crude oil prices could spike higher if geopolitical or supply issues worsen.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 12, 2026, features Ed Ludlow, Chris Wright, Mike Wirth discussing SPCX, XLE, WTI. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ed Ludlow, Chris Wright, Mike Wirth  · Tickers: SPCX, XLE, WTI