Semiconductors: We need to watch this week rather than make a hasty judgment now

Summary

Han Sang-hee, Senior Research Commissioner at Hanwha Investment & Securities, argues that excessive euphoria around SK hynix's ADR listing was unwarranted and convergence will take time. He highlights that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's 20% drawdown historically marks a floor barring a major macro shock, suggesting a tactical bounce is near. He has turned bullish on Korean semiconductor stocks (Samsung Electronics, SK hynix) again, viewing them as buyable based on cycle-adjusted P/E analysis and the ongoing AI cycle. He advises watching this week's TSMC and ASML earnings as critical sector signals.

• Han Sang-hee sees the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index near a historical bottom, with a 20% drawdown likely to trigger a bounce unless a major macro shock hits.
• He believes the SK hynix ADR premium will converge over time but warns expectations for immediate re-rating were too high.
• US mega-cap resilience and abundant short-term liquidity are preventing a broader US market decline.
• He has upgraded his view on Korean semiconductor stocks, arguing current levels are a buying opportunity using forward-looking cycle-adjusted P/E.
• The AI cycle is far from over, with low penetration in both B2B and B2C segments supporting long-term semiconductor demand.
• He urges investors to watch TSMC and ASML earnings this week for confirmation of the sector's health before making aggressive moves.
• Korean market dynamics, including reduced retail deposits and institutional rebalancing, could support a technical bounce in local semis.