Ukraine War To End This Year? Trump And Putin Begin Ceasefire Talks | Matt Gertken

Summary

Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, discusses the US-Russia ceasefire talks over Ukraine, arguing the war likely ends this year with a ceasefire along current lines and Ukraine effectively abandoned by the US. He explains that the Trump administration is pivoting toward Asia and pressuring Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense. The interview covers implications for Russia sanctions relief, Ukraine's mineral resources, Taiwan's strategic importance, and the semiconductor supply chain.

• US and Russia begin talks on ending the Ukraine war, excluding Ukraine and European allies initially.
• Gertken expects a ceasefire this year, likely along current lines, without NATO membership or reliable security guarantees for Ukraine.
• The Trump administration wants to pivot to Asia and counter China, forcing Europe to pay more for NATO and defense.
• Sanctions relief for Russia may be on the table, though US-Russia economic complementarity is limited.
• Ukraine's mineral wealth is discussed, but resource investments face high risk from Russian interference and export insecurity.
• Taiwan is seen as more strategically important than Ukraine due to advanced semiconductors and the US security architecture in Asia.
• The administration is likely to keep supporting Taiwan and may clear a $24 billion arms-sales backlog.
• A phase two US-China trade deal is expected to be limited, with Taiwan status quo as the best likely outcome.