Ideas
Bitcoin cycle targets 180k, then 450k
VanEck predicts either the US federal government or at least one US state will establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Federal legislation odds are below 50%, but more than 20 states have introduced reserve bills and Treasury could act unilaterally; state bills that collect Bitcoin as taxes, fees, and fines and hold it for five years have a higher chance. If a major state like Texas or Utah passes, it could catalyze other governments to accelerate Bitcoin reserve plans, providing a symbolic leadership hedge and financial hedge.
Weaker dollar favors non-US equities
VanEck is more balanced on US versus non-US equities. A Trump presidency has historically been associated with a weaker dollar, and a weaker dollar tends to boost non-US markets and commodity producers. He remains constructive on equities generally but expects US tech stock outperformance to be less pronounced this year than in the past couple of years.
Weaker dollar favors non-US equities
VanEck is more balanced on US versus non-US equities. A Trump presidency has historically been associated with a weaker dollar, and a weaker dollar tends to boost non-US markets and commodity producers. He remains constructive on equities generally but expects US tech stock outperformance to be less pronounced this year than in the past couple of years.
Ethereum faces roadmap and underperformance concerns
Ethereum has been underperforming and there are legitimate questions about its roadmap, which Sigel cites as a key reason for the recent altcoin drawdown. This makes Ethereum less attractive even as Solana and other L1s compete for programmable blockchain share.
Avoid long-tail altcoins and meme coins
Altcoins are suffering from oversupply: nearly 400,000 new meme coins have been created monthly, soaking up dollars, and the long tail of applications, infrastructure, and meme coins has unattractive tokenomics and over-supply. Sigel believes 99% of these coins will not have enduring value, even though quality L1s may work relative to Bitcoin.
Favor Layer 1 tokens over Bitcoin
Sigel remains optimistic that the Layer 1 ecosystem, including Solana and a handful of others, will work relative to Bitcoin by 2025. L1 tokens have performed reasonably well on a volatility-adjusted basis, and staking can earn yields that in some cases exceed project inflation.
Advisors may drive Bitcoin ETF inflows
Wall Street banks and brokers are entering crypto through regulated Bitcoin ETFs and options on ETFs rather than crypto exchanges, and VanEck is seeing many inbound calls from financial advisors exploring Bitcoin ETF allocations. Sigel thinks financial advisors will be the gateway to crypto this cycle, which should support spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
Staking may come to crypto ETFs
Sigel thinks odds are pretty high that staking will be allowed on Ethereum and Solana ETFs by the end of the year. VanEck already stakes about 70% of its European Ethereum ETF holdings and passes yield to clients; US staking ETFs would need liquidity management and backup credit lines, but staking could enhance ETF returns.
Onchain economy equities offer alpha
VanEck filed for an actively managed onchain economy ETF that would own equities touching the onchain economy, including miners, exchanges, payment gateways, data center companies, and energy infrastructure firms selling energy to Bitcoin miners. Sigel thinks the market cap available is expanding with likely IPOs and this could be an interesting area to look for alpha this year.
Solana is fast, growing Ethereum competitor
VanEck is bullish on Solana because it offers speed and usability for app builders, its January revenues exceeded Ethereum and the combined total of the next biggest proof-of-stake chains, app revenue is number one, and stablecoins are being onboarded. VanEck filed for a spot Solana ETF and Sigel sees greater than 70% odds of a handful of spot Solana ETFs listing this year; Solana is a legitimate competitor to Ethereum for majority share of programmable blockchains.
This The David Lin Report video, published February 18, 2025,
features Matthew Sigel
discussing BTC, non-US equities, XLK, ETH, Long-tail altcoins, Meme coins, Layer 1 crypto tokens, Spot Bitcoin ETFs, ETHA, Solana ETFs, Onchain economy equities, SOL.
10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Matthew Sigel
· Tickers:
BTC,
non-US equities,
XLK,
ETH,
Long-tail altcoins,
Meme coins,
Layer 1 crypto tokens,
Spot Bitcoin ETFs,
ETHA,
Solana ETFs,
Onchain economy equities,
SOL
