Positive real income growth is powerful support for consumer, says Solus' Greenhaus

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 02, 2026 at 20:45  |  3:50  |  CNBC
Speakers
Dan Greenhaus — Chief Strategist, ICAP

Summary

Dan Greenhaus of Solus Alternative Asset Management argues the bull market's main drivers remain intact into 2026: AI capex, an accommodative Fed, and healthy GDP growth. He expects roughly 10% to 15% earnings growth and says the consumer remains resilient despite low-income pressure. He highlights AI beneficiaries such as Micron, NVIDIA, and Broadcom, broad credit-card spending, and selective consumer names including Five Below, Tapestry, and Ralph Lauren.

  • Dan Greenhaus says the calendar turn does not change the investment thesis.
  • He cites three market tailwinds: AI trade, Fed accommodation, and healthy GDP growth.
  • AI capex and demand exceeding supply benefit Micron, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and infrastructure suppliers.
  • The consumer is resilient; low-income consumers are challenged but credit card companies are near record highs.
  • Five Below and Dollar Tree rallied despite low-income pressure; Five Below fixed shrink issues.
  • Brand resonance is strong for Tapestry/Coach and Ralph Lauren with higher-income consumers.
  • Turnarounds in Ulta, Deckers, and Kohl's were cited as part of consumer strength.
  • Greenhaus expects roughly 2.5% GDP growth and 10% to 15% earnings growth.
Ideas
Dan Greenhaus Chief Strategist, ICAP 0:38
AI, Fed, GDP support equities
The calendar turn does not change the investment thesis. The three main market drivers--AI investment, an accommodative Fed that is unlikely to hike and is providing liquidity, and healthy roughly 2.5% GDP growth driving top-line growth with some margin expansion--should remain tailwinds. He expects that to support roughly 10% to 15% earnings growth and keep the bull market intact into 2026.
SPY HIGH
Dan Greenhaus Chief Strategist, ICAP 0:42
AI capex demand exceeds supply
The AI trade is not slowing down. Capex remains enormous at hundreds of billions of dollars and demand exceeds supply, benefiting Micron, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and the downstream AI infrastructure and industrial names helping build out the ecosystem. He does not think investors suddenly need to see broad AI adoption or productivity gains from non-tech companies for the trade to continue.
MU NVDA AVGO HIGH
Dan Greenhaus Chief Strategist, ICAP 2:43
Consumer resilient on real income growth
The consumer has been incredibly resilient and positive real income growth is a powerful support. While the low-income consumer is challenged, overall consumer activity remains strong, and that resilience has been a key theme despite tariff and inflationary pressure.
XLP HIGH
Dan Greenhaus Chief Strategist, ICAP 2:44
Credit card companies capture consumer spending
At the highest level, credit card companies American Express, Capital One, Mastercard, and Visa are near record highs and capture broad consumer spending, making them a direct proxy for resilient consumer activity.
AXP COF MA V MED
Dan Greenhaus Chief Strategist, ICAP 3:08
Low-income challenged, but these retailers rally
Even though the low-income consumer is challenged, shorting Dollar Tree and Five Below would have been wrong: both are experiencing tremendous rallies. Five Below in particular has figured out its shrink and other problems, and margins are benefiting, driving the stock much higher.
DLTR Five Below MED
Dan Greenhaus Chief Strategist, ICAP 3:32
Brand resonance strong with higher-income consumers
Brand resonance is doing quite well for Tapestry, including Coach, and Ralph Lauren. Aspirational higher-income consumers are still spending exceedingly well, supporting these brands even as the low-income consumer is pressured.
TPR RL MED
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This CNBC video, published January 02, 2026, features Dan Greenhaus discussing SPY, MU, NVDA, AVGO, XLP, AXP, COF, MA, V, DLTR, Five Below, TPR, RL. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Dan Greenhaus  · Tickers: SPY, MU, NVDA, AVGO, XLP, AXP, COF, MA, V, DLTR, Five Below, TPR, RL