Walmart is our top idea for 2026, says TD Cowen retail analyst Chen

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 02, 2026 at 20:44  |  4:05  |  CNBC
Speakers
Oliver Chen — Retail Analyst at Cowen

Summary

Oliver Chen of TD Cowen joined CNBC's Closing Bell to discuss the 2026 consumer and retail outlook. He remains constructive on the consumer's resilience but selective on retailers, naming Walmart as his top idea for the year and saying he likes Costco on a pullback. Chen highlights Walmart's multi-income customer appeal, CEO transition, grocery strength, retail media, marketplace, and apparel share gains.

  • Oliver Chen of TD Cowen discusses retail and consumer outlook for 2026.
  • Holiday spending was strong; TD Cowen raised estimates to up 4-5%.
  • Consumer remains resilient but selective; top 10% accounts for 50% of spending.
  • Walmart is TD Cowen's top 2026 retail idea.
  • Chen cites Walmart's value and high-end appeal, CEO transition, grocery dominance, retail media, marketplace, and apparel.
  • Chen also likes Costco on a pullback.
  • Walmart's apparel business is taking share from Target.
Ideas
Oliver Chen Retail Analyst at Cowen 1:16
Walmart top 2026 idea with growth levers
Walmart is Chen's top idea for 2026. He argues it is executing to both high-end and value-oriented customers as all consumers seek value, with the CEO transition from Doug McMillon to John Furner occurring from a position of strength. McMillon positioned Walmart well against Amazon through bricks-plus-clicks, online, and AI initiatives, and Furner, a strong internal operator, is expected to continue the playbook. Walmart US dominates grocery, a hard business, and the company is well positioned despite supply-chain volatility and AI implementation challenges. Additional growth levers include retail media/digital advertising, which could quadruple at 60%+ margins, marketplace seller growth, and apparel (Open Assembly) taking share from Target and appealing across household incomes.
WMT HIGH
Oliver Chen Retail Analyst at Cowen 1:31
Buy Costco on pullback
In the context of a resilient but selective consumer and only certain retailers winning, Chen says he likes Costco on the pullback, favoring the stock on weakness.
COST MED
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This CNBC video, published January 02, 2026, features Oliver Chen discussing WMT, COST. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Oliver Chen  · Tickers: WMT, COST