Oil Climbs as Fresh Tanker Strike Highlights Risks Around Hormuz
Speakers
Mike McGlone
— Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence
Summary
Mike McGlone argues oil is in a bear market despite Strait of Hormuz tensions, expecting lower prices due to North American surplus and technology substitution. He also sees downside in soybeans, corn, and cattle, and warns of a 2008-like stock market decline.
- Crude oil bear market persists despite geopolitical risk; normalization to push prices lower.
- US and Canadian liquid fuels surplus approaching 9 million barrels per day next year.
- Price-maker status shifting from OPEC to Western Hemisphere, requiring lower prices.
- Soybeans face headwinds from cheaper Brazilian supply and ample US planting.
- Corn likely to decline if normal weather persists and cycles repeat.
- Live cattle prices may have peaked as high-price cure kicks in during peak demand season.
- Stock market drawing comparisons to 2008 as commodity weakness spreads.
Ideas
Bear market, surplus to push crude lower.
Crude oil is in a bear market with traders looking to reset shorts. The market is near the apex of the 20-year bell curve and normalization should push it back toward the lower end of the range. A pending US and Canadian liquid fuels surplus approaching 9 million barrels per day next year will add pressure, and the price-maker status has shifted from OPEC to the Western Hemisphere, requiring lower prices to curb supply.
Corn likely to decline with normal cycles.
Corn peaked this year and the pump-and-dump trend is starting. As long as normal weather continues without a bad summer, the December contract, which recently pumped to near $5, is likely to roll lower in a normal cycle, particularly with crude oil also declining.
Stock market risks 2008-like decline.
Mike McGlone says the stock market looks reminiscent of 2008 and worries about significant equity downside, but this is not an explicit SPY short/put call; bearish broad-market view is avoid.
Soybeans likely to drop below $10.
U.S. soybeans are more expensive than Brazilian soybeans, Brazil just had a big harvest, and the U.S. planted more with ample rain. Prices are likely to fall back below $10 from the current $12 level as harvest approaches in September and October.
Peak cattle prices likely reached.
Mike McGlone says live cattle may have peaked/top reached, but does not make an explicit cattle short/put call; bearish commodity view is avoid.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 07, 2026, features Mike McGlone discussing WTI, CORN, SPY, SOYB, LCTD. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mike McGlone · Tickers: WTI, CORN, SPY, SOYB, LCTD