Investor Peter Boockvar expects relief rally, would sell it

Summary

• A global bond sell-off is underway, with rising yields in the US (10-year ~4.42%), Europe, and the UK (10-year Gilt above 5%).
• The move is driven not just by inflation worries but by growing investor concerns over sovereign and corporate debt levels, complicating central bank decision-making.
• Higher yields are a "rethink" on duration risk and raise funding costs for an overleveraged global economy, impacting corporations and sovereigns.
• Even if the Fed cuts the short-term rate, long-term yields (e.g., the 10-year) may continue rising due to debt/deficit concerns and inflation, meaning Fed cuts won't "solve the whole curve."
• The main economic "pain point" is inflation, not weak growth, leading companies to focus on cost-cutting and preserving margins, not hiring.
• Rate cuts in response to economic weakness may not spur hiring, as companies remain cost-focused due to inflation pressures.
• A key risk is that investors demand higher yields to lend to overleveraged governments, especially if they anticipate currency debasement.
• This dynamic is visible in multiple overleveraged developed markets, like Japan.