Geopolitics, policy and demand are behind copper's 50% surge, says S&P Global's Dan Yergin

Summary

Dan Yergin, Vice Chair of S&P Global, explains why copper prices have surged 50% this year, driven by a confluence of geopolitics, policy, and demand. He highlights copper's critical role in AI, defense, energy transition, and electric vehicles, while noting severe supply constraints due to long mine development times. Tariff policy and the Trump administration's focus on reshoring mining add further upward pressure.

• Copper prices have risen 50% since the beginning of the year.
• Demand drivers include AI, defense, energy transition, and electric vehicles.
• Supply is constrained by long mine lead times (about 17 years) and development obstacles.
• Tariff policy and anticipation of further tariffs are pushing prices higher.
• The Trump administration aims to bring mining and manufacturing back to the U.S.
• High prices will eventually spur innovation, substitution, and recycling, but a demand-supply gap persists.
• Mining companies are shifting focus toward copper and away from other areas.