#731
Alpha Score 2.1
Daniel Yergin
S&P Global Vice Chairman
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Apr 25
$132.40
+3.5%
The market is underpricing the risk of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz; as inventories are drawn down and last cargoes arrive, oil prices will face significant upside pressure.
Energy
Long
Mar 08
$473.51
-13.0%
Yergin references a "nightmare scenario" involving a recession and financial market impact if the war drags on. The combination of war, soaring energy costs, and potential stagflation creates a textbook environment for safe-haven assets. Gold acts as a hedge against both geopolitical instability and the inflationary pressure of an energy shock. LONG Gold as a macro hedge. High real interest rates if the Fed hikes to combat inflation could cap Gold's upside.
Yergin references a "nightmare scenario" involving a recession and financial market impact if the war drags on. The combination of war, soaring energy costs, and potential stagflation creates a textbook environment for safe-haven assets. Gold acts as a hedge against both geopolitical instability and the inflationary pressure of an energy shock. LONG Gold as a macro hedge. High real interest rates if the Fed hikes to combat inflation could cap Gold's upside.
Macro
Long
Mar 02
$39.62
-12.5%
"Tanker traffic has virtually halted... what concerns tanker owners and tanker operators is the physical danger." While traffic is currently halted, the eventual resumption will come with massive war-risk premiums. Furthermore, if the Strait remains dangerous, oil must be rerouted via pipelines or longer voyages, increasing "ton-miles" and driving up shipping rates for the available fleet. Long Oil Tanker operators. Total indefinite closure of the Strait where *no* ships move for months would hurt volume, even if rates are high.
"Tanker traffic has virtually halted... what concerns tanker owners and tanker operators is the physical danger." While traffic is currently halted, the eventual resumption will come with massive war-risk premiums. Furthermore, if the Strait remains dangerous, oil must be rerouted via pipelines or longer voyages, increasing "ton-miles" and driving up shipping rates for the available fleet. Long Oil Tanker operators. Total indefinite closure of the Strait where *no* ships move for months would hurt volume, even if rates are high.
Other
Long
Mar 02
$676.70
-24.3%
"UAE, Saudi Arabia and so forth are prepared to join the battle against Iran... concerned about drone attacks and safety." The expansion of the conflict to include wealthy Gulf nations (UAE/Saudi) directly implies increased procurement of missile defense systems and munitions. Raytheon (Patriot systems), Lockheed, and Northrop Grumman are primary suppliers for air defense in this region. Long US Defense Prime Contractors. De-escalation or US political pressure to limit arms sales.
"UAE, Saudi Arabia and so forth are prepared to join the battle against Iran... concerned about drone attacks and safety." The expansion of the conflict to include wealthy Gulf nations (UAE/Saudi) directly implies increased procurement of missile defense systems and munitions. Raytheon (Patriot systems), Lockheed, and Northrop Grumman are primary suppliers for air defense in this region. Long US Defense Prime Contractors. De-escalation or US political pressure to limit arms sales.
NatSec
Long
Mar 02
$248.93
-5.2%
"About 20% of LNG passes [through the Strait]... Saudi Arabia has just shut down... the production of LNG, because they're concerned about drone attacks." The shutdown of Saudi LNG facilities combined with the blockage of the Strait creates a dual supply shock for natural gas. This benefits US-based natural gas prices (UNG) and US LNG exporters (Cheniere - ticker LNG) who act as the safe-haven supplier of last resort. Long Natural Gas and US LNG exporters. Demand destruction in Asia due to high prices or a quick resumption of Saudi production.
"About 20% of LNG passes [through the Strait]... Saudi Arabia has just shut down... the production of LNG, because they're concerned about drone attacks." The shutdown of Saudi LNG facilities combined with the blockage of the Strait creates a dual supply shock for natural gas. This benefits US-based natural gas prices (UNG) and US LNG exporters (Cheniere - ticker LNG) who act as the safe-haven supplier of last resort. Long Natural Gas and US LNG exporters. Demand destruction in Asia due to high prices or a quick resumption of Saudi production.
Energy
Long
Mar 02
$768.02
-30.3%
"UAE, Saudi Arabia and so forth are prepared to join the battle against Iran... concerned about drone attacks and safety." The expansion of the conflict to include wealthy Gulf nations (UAE/Saudi) directly implies increased procurement of missile defense systems and munitions. Raytheon (Patriot systems), Lockheed, and Northrop Grumman are primary suppliers for air defense in this region. Long US Defense Prime Contractors. De-escalation or US political pressure to limit arms sales.
"UAE, Saudi Arabia and so forth are prepared to join the battle against Iran... concerned about drone attacks and safety." The expansion of the conflict to include wealthy Gulf nations (UAE/Saudi) directly implies increased procurement of missile defense systems and munitions. Raytheon (Patriot systems), Lockheed, and Northrop Grumman are primary suppliers for air defense in this region. Long US Defense Prime Contractors. De-escalation or US political pressure to limit arms sales.
NatSec
Long
Mar 02
$212.16
-17.9%
"UAE, Saudi Arabia and so forth are prepared to join the battle against Iran... concerned about drone attacks and safety." The expansion of the conflict to include wealthy Gulf nations (UAE/Saudi) directly implies increased procurement of missile defense systems and munitions. Raytheon (Patriot systems), Lockheed, and Northrop Grumman are primary suppliers for air defense in this region. Long US Defense Prime Contractors. De-escalation or US political pressure to limit arms sales.
"UAE, Saudi Arabia and so forth are prepared to join the battle against Iran... concerned about drone attacks and safety." The expansion of the conflict to include wealthy Gulf nations (UAE/Saudi) directly implies increased procurement of missile defense systems and munitions. Raytheon (Patriot systems), Lockheed, and Northrop Grumman are primary suppliers for air defense in this region. Long US Defense Prime Contractors. De-escalation or US political pressure to limit arms sales.
NatSec
Long
Mar 02
$78.28
-4.1%
"Tanker traffic has virtually halted... what concerns tanker owners and tanker operators is the physical danger." While traffic is currently halted, the eventual resumption will come with massive war-risk premiums. Furthermore, if the Strait remains dangerous, oil must be rerouted via pipelines or longer voyages, increasing "ton-miles" and driving up shipping rates for the available fleet. Long Oil Tanker operators. Total indefinite closure of the Strait where *no* ships move for months would hurt volume, even if rates are high.
"Tanker traffic has virtually halted... what concerns tanker owners and tanker operators is the physical danger." While traffic is currently halted, the eventual resumption will come with massive war-risk premiums. Furthermore, if the Strait remains dangerous, oil must be rerouted via pipelines or longer voyages, increasing "ton-miles" and driving up shipping rates for the available fleet. Long Oil Tanker operators. Total indefinite closure of the Strait where *no* ships move for months would hurt volume, even if rates are high.
Energy
Long
Mar 02
$12.00
-4.1%
"About 20% of LNG passes [through the Strait]... Saudi Arabia has just shut down... the production of LNG, because they're concerned about drone attacks." The shutdown of Saudi LNG facilities combined with the blockage of the Strait creates a dual supply shock for natural gas. This benefits US-based natural gas prices (UNG) and US LNG exporters (Cheniere - ticker LNG) who act as the safe-haven supplier of last resort. Long Natural Gas and US LNG exporters. Demand destruction in Asia due to high prices or a quick resumption of Saudi production.
"About 20% of LNG passes [through the Strait]... Saudi Arabia has just shut down... the production of LNG, because they're concerned about drone attacks." The shutdown of Saudi LNG facilities combined with the blockage of the Strait creates a dual supply shock for natural gas. This benefits US-based natural gas prices (UNG) and US LNG exporters (Cheniere - ticker LNG) who act as the safe-haven supplier of last resort. Long Natural Gas and US LNG exporters. Demand destruction in Asia due to high prices or a quick resumption of Saudi production.
Energy
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