Name: Another 20% Market Crash, Recession This Summer; Is ‘Coup’ Against Trump Coming? | Peter Berezin
Uploaded: 2025-04-24T23:27:30+00:00
Duration: 1760 s

Speakers

Peter Berezin — Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, BCA Research

Summary

Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Director of Research at BCA Research, tells David Lin that the US is likely headed into recession by summer 2025 as the trade war hits an already vulnerable economy. He expects no near-term China trade deal, warns that the dollar is losing its safe-haven status, and sees the Fed cutting rates only once recession is evident. Berezin remains underweight stocks, overweight cash, favors gold and defensive sectors, and is bearish oil and industrial metals, while preferring T-bills over T-bonds but watching for a later long-duration Treasury opportunity.

Berezin sees a US recession by summer 2025 due to the trade shock and pre-existing economic weakness.
He expects China to resist a trade deal and Trump eventually to back down under political pressure.
He warns the dollar is weakening and losing safe-haven status, with capital outflows and rising yields.
He is underweight stocks with an S&P 500 year-end target of 4450 and overweight cash.
He prefers T-bills over T-bonds now, but would buy long duration if jobless claims rise and recession becomes clear.
He remains bullish gold and favors defensive sectors: consumer staples, healthcare, utilities.
He is bearish oil and industrial metals, and cautious on Bitcoin due to its risk component.

Ideas

Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, BCA Research 10:29

Dollar losing safe-haven status

Berezin highlights that the dollar is weakening even as US yields rise, with capital outflows and investors questioning the dollar’s safe-haven status. He warns this emerging-market-like dynamic is a problem for the global financial system, though he does not frame it as an active short trade.

Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, BCA Research 13:21

Long bonds when recession evident

Berezin sees a tactical opportunity to buy long-duration Treasuries once initial jobless claims start rising and the US recession becomes evident. At that point the Fed will be forced to cut rates aggressively even if tariff-driven inflation is elevated, pushing bond yields down. He is not there yet and remains neutral duration for now.

Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, BCA Research 23:45

S&P 500 target 4450, recession

Berezin expects a US recession by summer 2025 as the trade shock hits an already vulnerable economy with slowing consumer spending, falling job openings, rising delinquencies, and excess new homes. He keeps his S&P 500 year-end target at 4450, which implies lower stocks via forward P/E compression to about 18 and a 10% cut to earnings estimates, and BCA is underweight stocks.

Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, BCA Research 26:08

Overweight cash amid recession risk

With recession risk elevated and trade war uncertainty rising, BCA is underweight stocks and overweight cash, preferring liquidity and defense while waiting for clearer evidence of how the slowdown will unfold.

Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, BCA Research 26:20

Gold bullish with strong tailwinds

Berezin continues to like and hold gold. It is expensive, but it has strong tailwinds from the weakening dollar, loss of confidence in US assets, fiscal deterioration, and safe-haven demand. He explicitly calls gold a bullish play.

Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, BCA Research 26:29

Favor defensive sectors over cyclicals

For investors who must remain in stocks during the slowdown and likely recession, Berezin recommends favoring defensive sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities over more cyclical sectors.

Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, BCA Research 26:47

Oil and industrial metals bearish

Berezin is bearish on oil and industrial metals because a US recession and global slowdown will weaken demand, making commodities a bearish play, in contrast to gold which he views bullishly.

Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, BCA Research 27:37

Prefer T-bills over T-bonds

Because the US fiscal situation is dire, deficits are large, and investors are questioning Treasury credibility, Berezin recommends being in T-bills rather than T-bonds if investors must hold Treasuries. Long-end yields face upward pressure from inflation, fiscal risk, and foreign diversification until the Fed starts cutting.

Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, BCA Research 28:08

Bitcoin risky, avoid due speculation

Berezin is more cautious on Bitcoin than gold. Although Bitcoin sometimes acts as a safe haven, it also has a risk and speculation component; if overall risk appetite deteriorates, Bitcoin could be dragged down, and other crypto plays have performed much worse.

Another 20% Market Crash, Recession This Summer; Is ‘Coup’ Against Trump Coming? | Peter Berezin

Summary

Ideas

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