Name: Why Central Banks Are Stockpiling Gold: $3,700 Next | Nicky Shiels
Uploaded: 2025-04-24T17:04:16+00:00
Duration: 1514 s

Speakers

Nicky Shiels — Head of Metals Strategy, MKS PAMP

David Lin — Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News

Summary

Nicky Shiels, Head of Metal Strategy at MKS Pamp, discusses gold's record rally above $3,400. She argues gold is structurally supported by global de-risking of US assets, central-bank buying, trade-war and de-dollarization premiums, and sees roughly $3,700 as the next 2025 upside target. She is less bullish on silver, expecting a $32-$35 range, and says investors are questioning US Treasuries and the dollar while seeking havens. David Lin also highlights strong year-to-date performance in gold miners.

Gold has rallied beyond $3,400 and is trading independently from traditional correlations.
Shiels sees a structural buy-the-dip environment for gold with a $3,700 target.
Central-bank demand and de-risking of US assets are key supports for gold.
Silver is expected to lag gold and trade in a $32-$35 range due to industrial demand risks.
Foreign investors are questioning US Treasuries and the dollar, supporting rotation into havens.
Gold miners (GDX) have outperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date.
Trade-war uncertainty and policy U-turns create a chaos premium in gold.

Ideas

Nicky Shiels Head of Metals Strategy, MKS PAMP 1:14

Structurally bullish gold; buy dips, $3,700 target.

Gold is structurally a buy-the-dip even after a short-term overshoot. The global de-risking of US assets, central-bank buying, trade-war and de-dollarization premiums, and a shrinking pool of havens are supporting the market. She sees roughly $3,700 as the next 2025 upside target, based on the inflation-adjusted 1980 high near $3,580 and the historical 40% maximum annual gain taking gold to about $3,675. Fed policy outcomes—lower real rates or a deep recession—and political pressure on the Fed are also bullish.

Nicky Shiels Head of Metals Strategy, MKS PAMP 1:17

De-risking US assets pressures dollar.

There is a global de-risking of US assets, including the US dollar, driven by trade-war tariffs, policy U-turns, and uncertainty around the Trump administration. Foreign investors have been rattled and the dollar trade is unwinding, with yields rising alongside a falling dollar as investors dump US-dollar-denominated assets. This de-risking puts gold back in the limelight.

David Lin Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News 3:14

Gold miners show strong investment appetite.

GDX, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, is up about 45% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is down about 10%, which suggests there is still investment appetite for the gold equities complex, not just for bullion as a dollar hedge. Nicky agrees this reflects a scramble into gold and gold-related products, including underappreciated gold-related asset classes.

Nicky Shiels Head of Metals Strategy, MKS PAMP 10:52

US Treasuries lose safe-haven appeal.

Foreign investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries because of policy U-turns and trade tensions. That has contributed to the abnormal rise in yields alongside gold as investors rotate out of US fixed income into the shrinking pool of havens such as gold, the yen, and the Swiss franc. This rotation is a structural underpinning for gold's divergence from rates.

Nicky Shiels Head of Metals Strategy, MKS PAMP 14:28

Silver still bullish but limited to $32-$35.

Silver is less bullish than gold but still bullish. Her original $35-$40 forecast assumed reflation, but Trump tariffs have overturned that; she now expects silver to remain contained in a $32-$35 range. It should be pulled along by gold, and investment demand is rising as it is a cheap alternative to gold, but trade-war damage to global growth and industrial demand should keep it from outperforming.

Why Central Banks Are Stockpiling Gold: $3,700 Next | Nicky Shiels

Summary

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