How Pakistan, China Played Roles in US-Iran Ceasefire

Summary

• A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran was announced, averting feared military escalation.
• The ceasefire was brokered through intensive back-channel diplomacy, with Pakistan acting as a key mediator and China credited with bringing Iran to the table.
• The agreement includes the "complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz" and a suspension of US military operations.
• Despite the ceasefire, Iran maintains that vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz will still require approval from its armed forces.
• Iran has presented a ten-point proposal for a permanent cessation of hostilities, but many of the points are viewed as "non-starters" for the US and Gulf states, casting doubt on a durable peace.
• Pakistan's role as a mediator is attributed to its strategic positioning: it has close ties to the US, China, Saudi Arabia (via a defense treaty), and Iran, and is facing a domestic energy crisis, giving it a strong incentive to secure oil and gas flows.
• China is portrayed as a critical economic partner for Iran, having invested $400 billion into its economy, being its largest oil buyer, and a potential financier for postwar reconstruction. Its leverage was key in preventing Iran from leaving the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
• The ceasefire provides a temporary reprieve but significant questions remain about its long-term sustainability given the fundamental disagreements between the parties.