Oil Is About To Shock The World, Why Price Could Double | Josh Young

Summary

Josh Young of Bison Interests argues oil is set for a major supply-driven bull market and could double to new all-time highs because of years of underinvestment, exhausted OPEC spare capacity, strong diesel and mining demand, and policy-driven price suppression. He favors oil and gas equities, particularly onshore drilling rig companies and small producers, and also sees supported LNG and US natural gas producer opportunities. The discussion covers Ukraine peace scenarios, Iran and Strait of Hormuz geopolitical risk, US energy policy, tariffs, and declining shale well productivity.

• Josh Young expects oil prices to eventually hit multiple all-time highs, implying a doubling above $120.
• He argues a decade of underinvestment and OPEC spare-capacity depletion will tighten oil supply into 2026-2027.
• Geopolitical risk from Iran sanctions or Strait of Hormuz disruptions is not priced into oil, in his view.
• He prefers oil and gas equities, especially onshore drilling rig companies and small producers with low cash-flow multiples.
• He sees LNG prices in Europe and Asia supported even under a Russia peace scenario, with at least $8/Mcf.
• He highlights non-consensus US natural gas supply risk from declining shale well productivity per foot.
• He criticizes US energy policy and oil majors' loss of integration, arguing US energy independence is a myth.
• He acknowledges past oil price forecasts were wrong but remains structurally bullish.