‘It’s Not Because They Want to Be Friends’: Brilliant on What to Expect From the Trump-Xi Summit

Summary

Myron Brilliant discusses the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, noting that both sides seek stability rather than a breakthrough. He highlights China's confidence in handling Trump, the role of critical minerals as a choke point, and the secondary importance of the Iran war. The summit is expected to produce incremental deliverables, not home runs.

• The Trump-Xi summit is back on after delays due to the Iran war.
• Myron Brilliant says China thinks it has cracked the code on Trump and is punching back rather than appeasing.
• Critical minerals and rare earths have been leveraged by China as a choke point against the US and Japan.
• Both sides recognize a global recession does not serve their interests, so they aim for stability.
• The US wants market access for beef, soybeans, and Boeing planes; China wants guardrails on export controls and tariff clarity.
• Iran is a secondary issue; China's priority is the US-China relationship over aiding Iran.
• Deliverables from the summit are expected to be incremental singles, not home runs.
• AI competition and potential safety protocols are a key area to watch for cooperation or conflict.