A carteira de investimento à prova de guerra
Speakers
Summary
Marcelo Lopes discusses the impact of the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure on oil and energy markets, explains his asymmetric investment philosophy, and details his fund's large cash position. He also reveals specific holdings in offshore drilling (Borr Drilling) and US chemicals (Tronox).
- The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure have spiked oil prices and shifted focus to energy security.
- Marcelo Lopes advocates for asymmetric investments that offer high upside with limited downside.
- His fund's largest position is cash, as markets are historically expensive and risky.
- The fund holds Borr Drilling (BORR), an offshore jackup driller, but reduced exposure after its rally.
- The fund invested in Tronox (TROX), a US TiO2 producer, which tripled after the Iran war boosted US chemical competitiveness.
- The speaker warns that the AI capex surge resembles the 2000 bubble and may lead to reduced buybacks and lower stock prices.
- He cautions against passive market-cap-weighted ETFs and recommends active management.
- Private equity and private credit are described as hidden systemic risks.
Trade Ideas
Oil demand rising, jackups essential.
Borr Drilling (BORR) remains a holding despite the stock's appreciation, because the world's demand for oil continues to rise, jackup rigs are the fastest and cheapest way to increase production, and the Iran conflict has shifted global focus to energy security, which should drive more jackup contracts. The stock was bought at much lower prices, and though the fund reduced its position from 30% to 10%, the thesis still holds.
US chemicals boom, Tronox benefits.
Tronox (TROX) was bought when its stock was below $3, and has since risen nearly 300%, but the fund still holds a position. The thesis is that US chemical companies, especially TiO2 producers like Tronox, have a massive competitive advantage from cheap natural gas, while European and Chinese competitors have become unprofitable due to the Iran war. The narrative of overcapacity was wrong; demand for TiO2 continues to grow, and the US industry is benefiting disproportionately.
Up Next
This Fernando Ulrich video, published May 09, 2026, features Marcelo Lopes discussing BORR, TROX. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Marcelo Lopes · Tickers: BORR, TROX