Has KOSPI Truly Bottomed? How Far Will SK Hynix's Rise Continue? / Why Foreign Capital Flows Matter Now | Director Lee Jin-woo (Full Version)

Has KOSPI truly bottomed out? SK Hynix, how far will the rise continue? / Why foreign capital flow is important now | Director Lee Jin-woo (Full Version)
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 17, 2026 at 07:00  |  53:51  |  815 Money Talk (815머니톡)
Speakers
Lee Jin-woo — Director, GFM Investment Research

Summary

This interview with GFM Investment Research Institute Director Lee Jin-woo is a technical and macro review of the Korean market after its violent drawdown. He argues that KOSPI's 44% decline is probably enough for a rebound, with initial resistance at 6,835 and rebound targets of 7,300-7,800, while SK hynix can technically rebound toward 1,900,000 won. He reviews individual charts in shipbuilding, defense, nuclear power, electric equipment, robotics and Hyundai Motor, and highlights returning foreign buying as a supportive flow signal. Macro risks include the BOJ rate decision, yen carry unwind, oil and Iran geopolitics, and a rangebound dollar-won outlook.

  • KOSPI has fallen about 44% from its high, which Lee says is likely enough for a technical rebound.
  • SK hynix is viewed as a liquidity-driven bounce with next resistance at 1,900,000 won.
  • Technical charts reviewed include Hanwha Ocean, Hanwha Aerospace, Doosan Enerbility, HD Hyundai Electric, Rainbow Robotics and Hyundai Motor.
  • Foreign investors have returned to net buying while retail investors sell, which Lee reads as a supportive flow signal.
  • BOJ and FOMC meetings are key macro risk events for yen carry trade volatility.
  • USD/KRW is not expected to move to 1,600-1,700 and is seen as rangebound, with a possible 1,300 test only if support breaks.
Ideas
Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 14:07
Hanwha Ocean likely stays rangebound after rebound.
Hanwha Ocean, one of the representative shipbuilding stocks, retraced about 61.8% of its rally and is rebounding after falling from 154,800 won to 72,000 won. Lee expects the stock to trade inside a support-resistance band for the time being rather than immediately resuming a strong trend.
Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 15:03
Hanwha Aerospace rebound hits resistance; stay watchful.
The defense-related Hanwha Aerospace retraced about half of its decline and bounced sharply, but the daily chart is now at a level connecting prior highs where upside momentum is weakening. It remains well below its 1,655,000 won high, so Lee treats this as a rebound into resistance rather than a confirmed new uptrend.
Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 16:00
Doosan Enerbility bounce ambiguous; monitor wave structure.
Doosan Enerbility has bounced from around the 61.8% retracement zone, but its monthly chart is giving sell signals with weak volume. The wave interpretation is split: bulls see wave 4 ending and wave 5 beginning, while cautious traders see an A-B bounce with a possible C wave down, so the tradeable stance is to monitor rather than chase.
Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 17:00
HD Hyundai Electric technical bounce reaches resistance.
HD Hyundai Electric held the 200-day moving average and the 61.8% retracement of its rally, confirming a valid technical bounce in a large liquid stock. It has now risen to the 38.2% retracement of the decline, where an upper wick appeared, making this a useful level to watch for resistance before deciding on continuation.
Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 17:47
Rainbow Robotics valuation extreme despite technical bounce.
Rainbow Robotics has bounced from the 61.8% correction zone, but its valuation is extreme: trailing PER is about 6,500-7,700x and even the 2026 estimated PER is about 620x. Lee uses it as an example of robot-sector speculation where price cannot be justified by current earnings, so the technical rebound is not a fundamental long.
Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 18:43
Hyundai Motor cheap valuation supports rebound.
Hyundai Motor crashed about 56% from its high and is rebounding about 23% from the low. Lee highlights that the stock trades at only about 11-12x trailing earnings and roughly 9-10x forward earnings, even though the market increasingly treats it as a robot company. This valuation discrepancy is favorable relative to speculative robot names.
Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 21:03
Foreign buying returning; avoid selling into it.
Foreign investors have returned to net buying Korean stocks for consecutive sessions while retail investors are net selling, and Lee reads this as a short-term foreign bid returning. He cites Singapore sovereign fund interest in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, interprets a Bloomberg 'uninvestable' column as a signal to shake out leveraged retail positions so institutions can buy cheaper, and notes Morgan Stanley saying it is time to buy. His tactical rule is not to sell on days when foreigners are buying.
Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 35:56
Watch BOJ hike for yen carry shock.
Ahead of the September FOMC and BOJ meetings, the key risk is the BOJ raising rates and the market flinching. If the BOJ hikes 25bp and markets take it calmly, the rest of 2026 should be okay; if markets panic as in August 2024, that is a warning sign for yen carry trade unwinds and global risk assets.
Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 45:21
USD/KRW likely rangebound; 1,600-1,700 unjustified.
On dollar-won, Lee says domestic foreign-exchange fundamentals do not justify a move to 1,600-1,700. After the sharp drop from around the 1,560 area toward 1,410, he expects the pair to stay within the technical band between descending resistance and the lower connecting support line. If supply breaks the lower support, USD/KRW could visit 1,300, but an external trigger is needed.
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This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published August 17, 2026, features Lee Jin-woo discussing 042660.KS, 012450.KS, 034020.KS, 267260.KS, 277810.KQ, 005380.KS, 005930.KS, EWY, 000660.KS, JPY, USD/JPY, USD/KRW. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lee Jin-woo  · Tickers: 042660.KS, 012450.KS, 034020.KS, 267260.KS, 277810.KQ, 005380.KS, 005930.KS, EWY, 000660.KS, JPY, USD/JPY, USD/KRW