Kevin Warsh 'hurts Fed independence,' says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies

Summary

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research criticizes Kevin Warsh as a Fed chair candidate, arguing his track record and perceived lack of independence would reduce market trust and raise term premium. Pies expects the rough path for rate cuts to remain but sees higher rates and a steeper yield curve, with Warsh potentially lowering the Fed put in a future crisis. The discussion focuses on Fed independence, credibility, and market implications.

• Warren Pies says Kevin Warsh was the worst of four Fed chair candidates.
• Pies argues Warsh's track record undermines credibility and Fed independence.
• He expects less market trust to raise term premium and long-end rates.
• He agrees higher rates imply a steeper yield curve.
• Pies says the rough path for rate cuts remains intact but marginal cuts may be harder.
• He warns Warsh could lower the Fed put by being slow to expand the balance sheet in a crisis.