Inflation Data Calms Markets | Bloomberg Open Interest 2/13/2026
Speakers
Chris Wright — US Energy Secretary
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Inflation Reality Check: While headline CPI (0.2%) and Core (0.3%) met expectations, underlying data shows tariff-related inflation (computers/software up 3.1%) is already feeding through. Economists warn that immigration constraints and tariffs will create a higher inflation floor in 2026, limiting how deep the Fed can cut rates despite the market pricing in cuts.
- The "AI Scare Trade" Widens: AI anxiety is no longer just hitting Chegg or Stack Overflow; it has spread to logistics, travel (Expedia), and wealth management. The market is aggressively selling "AI Losers" (companies whose business models can be automated) while capital concentrates in "AI Winners" (Hardware/Infrastructure).
- Private Credit's Hidden Risk: A significant investigation reveals Private Credit funds (BDCs) have mislabeled over $9 billion in software loans as "Business Services" or "Specialty Retail," masking their exposure to the very sector currently being disrupted by AI.
- Venezuela Oil Pivot: The US Energy Secretary confirms a strategic shift to increase Venezuelan oil production to curb Russian/Chinese influence, explicitly naming Chevron as the primary beneficiary for immediate expansion.
Trade Ideas
Expedia (EXPE) down ~5% despite revenue growth; Pinterest (PINS) issued weak outlook focusing on AI costs; Logistics stocks falling on fears of AI automation (e.g., "Karaoke company turned AI trucker" disrupting freight). The narrative has shifted to "Sell First, Ask Questions Later" for any industry where AI agents could theoretically replace the service. The market is pricing in terminal value risk for software/service intermediaries. SHORT. The "AI Scare Trade" momentum is currently too strong to fight; these stocks are guilty until proven innocent. Oversold bounce; AI disruption takes longer than the market fears.
Airbnb (ABNB) upgraded by Deutsche Bank; viewed as "more protected" from AI disruption than peers like Expedia. Unlike generic booking engines (commoditized data), ABNB relies on unique, non-standard inventory and brand loyalty, making it harder for an AI agent to simply bypass the platform. LONG. A relative value play within the travel sector against the AI disruption narrative. Consumer spending slowdown; regulatory bans on short-term rentals.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated Chevron (CVX) is the largest producer in Venezuela and will "massively grow" operations there over the next 18-24 months via new licenses. The US government is explicitly backing Chevron's expansion to displace geopolitical rivals. This provides a state-sanctioned growth wedge for CVX that peers lack. LONG. Geopolitical alpha combined with energy production growth. Venezuelan political instability; oil price crash.
Coinbase (COIN) shares rebounding despite a revenue miss; speaker identifies crypto infrastructure as a key "Picks and Shovels" trade. Regardless of Bitcoin's price action, the *need* to trade assets persists. COIN is the regulated infrastructure play (similar to the Grid for electricity). LONG. Betting on the casino (exchange), not the gambler (token price). Regulatory crackdown; prolonged "crypto winter" reducing volumes.
Bloomberg investigation found BDCs have mislabeled ~$9 billion in loans; "Software" exposure is often hidden under "Business Services" or "Retail" labels to avoid investor scrutiny. Private Credit has been sold as a safe yield haven. If the underlying collateral is actually B2B software (the sector most at risk from AI disruption), the book value of these loans may be overstated. Redemptions are already ticking up. AVOID. Transparency risk + Sector headwinds = "Cockroach theory" (where there is one mislabeled loan, there are likely more). Software companies prove resilient; BDCs maintain strong repayment rates.
Dani Burger
Anchor, Bloomberg Television
Applied Materials (AMAT) beat earnings with strong guidance due to AI demand. Rivian (RIVN) posted its first-ever annual gross profit. Moderna (MRNA) beat revenue estimates on unexpected Covid vaccine demand. In a market dominated by "AI Anxiety," investors are rewarding tangible execution. AMAT confirms the "Picks and Shovels" hardware trade is intact. RIVN proves operational efficiency is possible in a slump. MRNA shows legacy cash flows are stickier than predicted. LONG. These are idiosyncratic winners in a choppy macro environment. Broader market sell-off dragging down high-beta names; RIVN remains capital intensive.
Jim Cantrell
CEO, Phantom Space (Co-Founder SpaceX)
AI models require massive compute; space offers energy/cooling advantages. The bottleneck is *Launch Capacity*. Data centers in space are the long-term vision, but they are impossible without reliable, cheap launch. Launch providers are the "boats crossing the Atlantic" for the new economy. LONG. Invest in launch capability and space infrastructure as the prerequisite for the space data economy. extremely high capital intensity; physics/engineering failure rates.
Ed Harrison
Anchor/Editor, Bloomberg Television
CPI was mixed; tariffs are feeding into prices (computers up 3.1%). Yields dropped slightly on the print. The market is pricing in rate cuts, but structural inflation (Tariffs + Immigration constraints) creates a floor. Yields are stuck in a range (4.0% - 4.2% on the 10Y). NEUTRAL. Upside on bonds is limited because inflation isn't dead; downside is limited because the economy is cooling. Sharp recession (yields crash) or Inflation spike (yields soar).
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 13, 2026, features Dani Burger, Annmarie Hordern, Aoifinn Devitt, Olivia Fishlow, Jim Cantrell, Ed Harrison discussing EXPE, PINS, ABNB, CVX, COIN, BKLN, AMAT, RIVN, MRNA, ARKX, TLT. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Dani Burger, Annmarie Hordern, Aoifinn Devitt, Olivia Fishlow, Jim Cantrell, Ed Harrison · Tickers: EXPE, PINS, ABNB, CVX, COIN, BKLN, AMAT, RIVN, MRNA, ARKX, TLT