How This Year's Stock Market Differs from 2007

올해 증시가 2007년과 다른 점
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 29, 2026 at 08:51  |  1:05:10  |  Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)
Speakers
Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Summary

Park Se-ik's morning briefing reads investor comments and news, covering the health insurance deficit, bank retirement pension money moving into risk assets, proposed inheritance-tax changes tied to PBR, and SK hynix's record HBM-driven earnings. He highlights AI memory/HBM strength, SK hynix's valuation discount versus Micron, a distorted USD/KRW rate, a nascent petrochemical margin turnaround, and the case for shifting pension deposits into KOSPI and US index ETFs. The closing article compares the current KOSPI rally with 2007 and notes further upside potential but also the need for caution.

  • Health insurance spending topped 100 trillion won with a record deficit, raising long-term fiscal pressure.
  • Bank retirement pension assets are shifting from deposits into risk assets, with non-principal-guaranteed products growing sharply.
  • Park Se-ik argues pension deposits should be moved into KOSPI-tracking and US index-tracking ETFs.
  • SK hynix's HBM leadership delivered record operating margins, and HBM4 competition with Samsung is intensifying.
  • Park Se-ik sees SK hynix as undervalued versus Micron and expects the distorted USD/KRW rate to normalize.
  • He flags a potential petrochemical turnaround as lower oil input costs widen product margin spreads.
  • The 2007 comparison article suggests KOSPI could reach 6,700 on historical PBR, but he mainly reports the view.
Ideas
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 24:23
SK hynix undervalued; HBM leadership supports upside.
SK hynix is the HBM leader and primary Nvidia supplier, with record operating margins, HBM4 supply commitments, buybacks and dividends, yet its market cap trades at a discount to Micron; the gap is due to Micron's US-listing premium and a distorted USD/KRW rate at 1450, which should normalize.
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 25:15
USD/KRW distorted; won should strengthen.
The USD/KRW rate around 1450 is distorted, as even US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested, and should normalize; this supports Korean assets and a stronger won.
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 28:49
Petrochemical margin spreads widening; turnaround starting.
A petrochemical turnaround is starting: oil prices have fallen, product prices are stabilizing or rebounding, and the margin spread between cheap crude input and chemical products is widening, improving earnings despite product prices still below prior peaks.
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 43:27
Shift pension deposits into KOSPI/US index ETFs.
Retirement pension money sitting in bank deposits is melting with inflation; buying KOSPI-tracking or US index-tracking ETFs monthly can earn around 10% annually, so deposits should be shifted to these risk assets.
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 50:19
AI inference drives HBM and memory demand.
AI's shift from training to inference is making HBM and memory the bottleneck; DRAM and NAND demand and prices are surging, memory-centric computing is expanding, and HBM is now a strategic material for the AI semiconductor supply chain.
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 54:41
Samsung's HBM4 qualification drives upside.
Samsung Electronics passed Nvidia's HBM4 qualification first and is set to ship finished HBM4 products next month, with a forecast 33% HBM market share in 2026; alongside SK hynix, it is generating massive profits in the AI memory cycle.
Up Next

This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published January 29, 2026, features Park Se-ik discussing 000660.KS, USD/KRW, KOREAN PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR, EWY, SPY, SMH, 005930.KS. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Park Se-ik  · Tickers: 000660.KS, USD/KRW, KOREAN PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR, EWY, SPY, SMH, 005930.KS