Name: Morgan Stanley CEO 'Pretty Amped Up' About M&A Landscape
Uploaded: 2026-01-21T13:52:42+00:00
Duration: 742 s

Speakers

Ted Pick — Head of Financial Products, Apollo

Summary

Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick says he is optimistic about the 2026 dealmaking environment, citing cross-border and large-cap M&A, AI as an accelerant, sponsor exits, and a stronger IPO pipeline. He remains bullish on US-led growth and corporate health while warning that highly indebted sovereigns, including Japan, warrant monitoring. He also downplays concerns about the US Treasury market and comments on research independence.

Ted Pick is amped up about M&A and IPO activity for 2026.
Cross-border and large-cap M&A are expected to be important, with AI as an accelerant.
Morgan Stanley's investment bank and wealth management should benefit from the cycle.
Pick sees a hard-to-argue-against US-led growth case supported by corporate health, earnings, Fed easing, and deregulation.
He flags Japan's long-end yields and other highly indebted sovereigns as vulnerabilities to watch.
He says US Treasury market concerns are overblown and some steepening is healthy.
He briefly discusses Venezuela/Latin America relevance and research independence.

Ideas

Ted Pick Head of Financial Products, Apollo 1:10

M&A revival benefits investment banks.

The M&A cycle is set to reopen after years of delays, with cross-border and large-cap deals becoming important as C-suites re-globalize and reorient operations. AI acts as an accelerant, sponsors need exits, and private growth companies may tap public capital, making this a great period for investment banks.

Ted Pick Head of Financial Products, Apollo 1:15

AI scale favors mega-cap companies.

AI is an accelerant to dealmaking and productivity, but only companies with substantial scale can absorb the investment; $30-40B market caps may struggle, while $200-300B-plus companies have a shot, favoring large-cap AI and technology beneficiaries.

Ted Pick Head of Financial Products, Apollo 5:36

US-led growth supports US equities.

The U.S. growth case for 2026 is hard to argue against: US capital markets dominate, corporate health is excellent, top-end consumer health is excellent, earnings could grow mid-teens, the Fed is easing, and deregulation tailwinds are kicking in.

Ted Pick Head of Financial Products, Apollo 6:46

MS benefits from M&A and wealth.

Morgan Stanley's investment bank and wealth management should benefit from the stronger M&A and IPO environment; Ted Pick says the firm writes tickets at about 2x nominal GDP and its wealth and investment bank should grow 5-10% nominally if executing well.

Ted Pick Head of Financial Products, Apollo 7:16

Japan bonds face sovereign vulnerability.

The move in Japanese long-end yields may be a warning shot for highly indebted countries with poor demographics and limited fiscal capacity; expect periodic Liz Truss-style episodes and trial balloons, so the Japanese example should be monitored.

Ted Pick Head of Financial Products, Apollo 8:16

US Treasury selloff concerns overblown.

Concerns that the US Treasury market is signaling a broader crisis are overblown; the 10-year yield is doing its job and some steepening is healthy, unlike vulnerable highly indebted sovereigns.

Morgan Stanley CEO 'Pretty Amped Up' About M&A Landscape

Summary

Ideas

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