Lazard CEO Peter Orszag: Expect inflation to surprise to the upside this year

Summary

Peter Orszag, CEO of Lazard and former OMB director, joins Squawk Box from Davos to discuss global trade realignment, geopolitics, AI, and the US economy. He says he is constructive on the US economy for 2026 but sees it driven mainly by AI and high-income consumers. Orszag expects inflation to surprise to the upside this year, possibly reaching 4%, citing wage pressure, incomplete tariff pass-through, and a larger fiscal deficit. He also flags Iran geopolitical risk and uncertainty for CEOs.

• Davos discussions focus on AI and a two-pole global economy.
• Peter Orszag is constructive on the US economy for 2026.
• He says US growth is concentrated in AI and high-income consumers.
• Inflation could surprise to the upside, potentially 4%, due to wages, tariffs, and fiscal deficit.
• Most tariff pass-through has not occurred yet.
• Geopolitical risk around Iran may escalate in coming days.
• Lazard's local branding in France, UK, and US helps with global uncertainty.
• A proposal for the TPP and EU to form a third global pillar is discussed.