Unstable Middle East War, Exchange Rates, Interest Rates... Why the Hot Bull Market Continues Despite Bad Macro Indicators

Name: [#긴급 인터뷰] 불안한 중동전쟁·환율·금리… 거시 지표는 안 좋은데, 뜨거운 상승장은 왜 계속될까?ㅣ 다이와증권 변정규 상석본부장
Uploaded: 2026-05-11T08:30:10+00:00
Duration: 1474 s
Description: [#긴급 인터뷰] 불안한 중동전쟁·환율·금리… 거시 지표는 안 좋은데, 뜨거운 상승장은 왜 계속될까?ㅣ 다이와증권 변정규 상석본부장 — AI-analyzed trade ideas from 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) on Buzzberg.

[#긴급 인터뷰] 불안한 중동전쟁·환율·금리… 거시 지표는 안 좋은데, 뜨거운 상승장은 왜 계속될까?ㅣ 다이와증권 변정규 상석본부장

Watch on YouTube ↗ | May 11, 2026 at 08:30 | 24:34 | 815 Money Talk (815머니톡)

Speakers

Byun Jung-gyu — Senior Managing Director, FICC Division, Daiwa Securities

Summary

Byun Jung-gyu, Senior Managing Director at Daiwa Securities, discusses the impact of the Middle East war on oil supply and stagflation risk, expects the Fed to hold rates, leading to persistent weakness in the Korean won and Japanese yen, and advises selective investment in cash-generating companies in key sectors like semiconductors and AI.

Middle East war has severely damaged oil infrastructure, risking long-term high oil prices and stagflation.
Fed is unlikely to cut rates soon due to inflation concerns and new chair Kevin Warsh's cautious stance.
USD/KRW expected to stay above 1400 due to rate differential and no Fed cut.
USD/JPY could return to 160 without aggressive BOJ rate hikes or intervention.
Global stock market remains supported, but investors should focus on cash-generating companies in semiconductors, online business, and AI.
New Bank of Korea governor indicates neutral stance, no immediate rate change.

Trade Ideas

Byun Jung-gyu Senior Managing Director, FICC Division, Daiwa Securities 13:05

Long crude oil on Middle East supply damage.

The Middle East war has severely damaged oil infrastructure in the region, including storage, transport, and port facilities, which may take years to a decade to fully restore, leading to sustained high oil prices and stagflation risk.

Byun Jung-gyu Senior Managing Director, FICC Division, Daiwa Securities 15:45

USD/KRW to stay above 1400.

Due to the persistent interest rate differential between the US and Korea, and the expectation that the Fed will not cut rates rapidly, the USD/KRW exchange rate is likely to remain above the 1400 level at least until the second half of the year.

Byun Jung-gyu Senior Managing Director, FICC Division, Daiwa Securities 20:05

USD/JPY could rise back to 160.

Without additional intervention or aggressive BOJ rate hikes, the yen could weaken again to 160 per dollar, as the rate differential with the US remains huge and two rate hikes are already priced in.

This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published May 11, 2026, features Byun Jung-gyu discussing WTI, USD/KRW, USD/JPY. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Byun Jung-gyu · Tickers: WTI, USD/KRW, USD/JPY

Unstable Middle East War, Exchange Rates, Interest Rates... Why the Hot Bull Market Continues Despite Bad Macro Indicators

Summary

Trade Ideas

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