Collapse of US Leveraged Funds…Will the Semiconductor Rally Restart? | It's Not Just Semiconductors, From Ships to Beauty…Exports, $1 Trillion in Sight

Summary

Kwon Sun-woo reviews the forced liquidation of a leveraged US semiconductor fund and its implications for a possible AI stock rebound. He then highlights strong semiconductor memory demand with rising capex, and examines Korea's July export data showing broad strength in memory, ships, cosmetics, machinery, and electric equipment—suggesting several underappreciated sectors are poised to benefit.

• A major leveraged AI fund was forced to liquidate, removing a key source of selling pressure from Nvidia, Micron, SK hynix and other AI names, potentially setting up a rebound.
• Hyperscalers raised capex to $760bn and Microsoft's Azure (43% growth) and AWS (37% growth) confirm that AI cloud is generating real profits, supporting continued memory demand.
• Memory prices keep rising month over month, HBM4 ramp-up is starting, and long-term supply agreements give Samsung Electronics and SK hynix strong earnings visibility.
• Korea's July exports hit $98.9bn (the second-highest month ever), with broad-based gains across semiconductors, ships, cosmetics, machinery and electric equipment.
• Shipbuilding exports rose 46.9% for the sixth consecutive month, but shipbuilding stocks have not reflected this strength, creating a potential mismatch.
• Korean cosmetics exports are quietly growing 30-40% year-on-year, yet the sector remains overlooked as a small sector next to memory.
• Electric power equipment and wires reached a record export high, driven by global AI data center and infrastructure demand.
• Machinery exports surged after the US cut tariffs on construction machinery from 25% to 15%, and demand from US data center buildout and pipeline replacement is providing another tailwind.