Has the semiconductor plunge stabilized? H2 semiconductor investment shouldn't only look at Big Tech

Summary

Kim Jang-yeol analyzes post-earnings big-tech capex trends and concludes that Amazon’s explicit capex recovery timeline, Microsoft’s superior backlog and FCF, and the excessive selloff in Korean memory stocks create attractive long opportunities, while Meta lags. Key risks center on cost pass-through and forced liquidation aftershocks.

• Big Tech Q2 earnings show AI capex continues to rise, backed by record cloud order backlogs.
• Amazon’s 3-year investment recovery and 5-year supply contract guidance removed FCF uncertainty and sparked a sharp rally.
• Microsoft stands out with the largest backlog ($6.78T) and positive free cash flow despite heavy investment.
• Korean memory stocks Samsung and SK hynix fell back to pre-ETF-mania prices on non-fundamental forces, now trading at 5-6x P/E with better fundamentals.
• Meta underperformed due to lack of a cloud business, making AI capex monetization harder.
• Cloud re-contracting cycles may allow cost pass-through to LLM firms, improving hyperscaler margins.
• The Leopold forced liquidation event likely nearing an end, aiding normalization of market technicals.