Unemployment Crisis Next? How Many Jobs DOGE Could Cut | Bob Elliott

Summary

Bob Elliott argues that fiscal policy, not Fed policy or inflation, will drive 2025 markets. He sees the policy mix of immigration restrictions, tariffs, and DOGE/spending cuts as growth-negative and believes equity expectations are too high. He favors bonds and gold as diversifiers relative to stocks, with gold supported by central-bank/retail demand and tight supply, while consumer debt delinquencies add risk to the consumer-driven economy.

• Stocks have been flat and choppy as investors digest high growth expectations.
• Bob says fiscal policy is the key 2025 driver, with immigration, tariffs, and spending cuts likely growth-negative.
• Inflation is expected to cool gradually and matter less for asset prices than growth.
• The labor market is stable, but DOGE layoffs could add modest unemployment pressure.
• Gold is favored on central-bank/retail demand, capital-control concerns, fixed supply, and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Bonds are favored relative to stocks as a diversifier and potential tariff-inflation hedge.
• Consumer debt delinquencies point to a k-shaped economy and risks if asset prices weaken.