2026 International Situation Will Make the U.S. Stock Market Rise for a Fourth Consecutive Year | Yonsei University Visiting Professor Bong Young-sik

Summary

In a year-opening interview, Yonsei visiting professor Bong Young-sik tells host Yeo Do-won that 2026 is a phase of resetting the U.S.-led global order rather than its collapse. He expects U.S.-China competition to stay tense but manageable, with tariffs, midterm elections, and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prospects as key variables. The investment implications he highlights are AI/semiconductors, power/electricity, critical minerals, and tech-advantaged countries such as Korea, while Taiwan/TSMC carries a blockade risk.

• Bong Young-sik sees 2026 as more stable than 2025 but still driven by U.S.-China rivalry.
• He expects Trump to mix confrontation and deal-making with China, with U.S. midterm elections and inflation as domestic constraints.
• He argues the post-1945 U.S.-led order is being reset, not replaced, based on English, the dollar, and military power.
• AI and semiconductors are presented as the central strategic and economic power source.
• AI growth is expected to require more electricity investment, with Taiwan's nuclear phase-out reversal as an example.
• Rare earths and critical minerals are highlighted as key inputs in the AI/tech competition.
• Korea and other tech-advantaged economies are seen as strategic beneficiaries; TSMC faces a Taiwan blockade risk.
• The discussion also covers Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prospects, North Korea policy, and U.S. midterm market implications.