Biggest ideas at Exchange: Crypto, tokenization, AI and what’s likely to change in 2026

* Active ETF strategies are capturing a significant and growing share of industry flows, with over 40% of U.S. ETF net inflows this year attributed to active strategies, up from ~25-30% previously. * Crypto is establishing itself as a distinct "fifth asset class" (following equities, fixed income, real estate, commodities), with indexing seen as the key gateway for broader adviser and client adoption. * Artificial Intelligence is viewed as a long-term structural bullish catalyst for crypto, as AI agents will require a native, 24/7, non-counterparty settlement asset (like crypto) to pay for compute and workflows. * Tokenization of traditional assets (e.g., money market funds, real estate) is considered transformative but awaits broader regulatory clarity and proven use cases beyond niche applications like collateral. * Commodities and related "hard asset" sectors (energy, utilities, materials) are significantly under-allocated in portfolios despite having a long-term volatility profile similar to equities and offering diversification from concentrated tech holdings. * A major portfolio construction thesis is forming around "real assets" (commodities, energy infrastructure, utilities, materials) as a hedge and beneficiary of AI's physical world demands (e.g., data centers, electricity, copper), termed "Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence" (HALO). * The ETF wrapper is increasingly seen as a versatile technology or delivery vehicle for a wide range of contents (active, crypto, fixed income) rather than just a passive index product. * Income generation remains a primary driver of product innovation, with demand evolving toward higher payment frequencies and strategies combining income with downside protection (e.g., buffered ETFs, options overlays). * The retirement channel (e.g., 401ks) represents a significant, under-penetrated growth frontier for ETF adoption, particularly for passive strategies.