Name: CAÍDA del oro y plata: ¿OPORTUNIDAD de compra o FIN del periodo alcista?
Uploaded: 2026-02-01T17:00:46+00:00
Duration: 3426 s

Speakers

Pablo Gil — Head of Research, 21Shares

Summary

Pablo Gil analyzes the sharp one-day selloff in gold and silver after the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. He argues the structural bull case for precious metals remains intact, but that Warsh's less dovish profile could strengthen the dollar, reduce Fed-put expectations, and extend the short-term correction. He identifies technical levels for gold and silver, reviews long-term ratios versus stocks, Bitcoin, housing, copper and money supply, and warns about crowded-trade risks.

Gold and silver suffered a historic one-day correction.
The trigger was Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair, seen as less dovish than expected.
Pablo Gil says the structural arguments for gold remain: low real rates, central-bank buying, fiscal expansion, and geopolitical risk.
He sees gold technical support near $4,600/oz and no major distribution pattern yet.
He sees silver risk of further correction, with a buy zone around 60 and structural support at 45-50.
A stronger dollar and less Fed support are near-term headwinds for precious metals.
Long-term ratios suggest gold may still be early in a rotation versus equities, and Bitcoin could briefly outperform gold.
He warns that crowded trades, including AI-linked equities and low-quality credit, can correct violently.

Ideas

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 11:26

Gold structural bull case remains intact

Pablo Gil argues the structural bull case for gold remains intact because real rates are low, central-bank demand is structural, fiscal policy is ultra-expansive, geopolitical uncertainty is high, inflation may settle in a 2-3% range rather than below 1%, and the latest Fed nomination only calls the weak-dollar trend into question. Technically he sees no distribution pattern in weekly gold; the Friday drop looks like a corrective move, with around $4,600/oz as the first important support and rising trendline from the August 2025 lows, and long-term projections from the 2016 lows could be much higher if a prior 650% impulse repeats, although the 10-year cycle is mature and deeper corrections toward long-term trendlines would be historic buy opportunities.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 16:17

Gold may outperform Dow long term

Using a long-term ratio, Pablo Gil notes that equities are expensive relative to gold and that the ratio has only just begun a rotation favorable to gold, far from an opposite signal. In his view, the gold/Dow ratio suggests the move in favor of gold versus equities could have medium/long-term room to run.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 21:13

Bitcoin may briefly outperform gold

Pablo Gil says the prior gold-vs-Bitcoin head-and-shoulders target in favor of gold has been met, and the ratio is now at an intermediate pivot support. That support could allow Bitcoin to outperform gold in the short term, but he does not view it as a definitive trend change.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 25:40

Commodities may catch up to easing

Pablo Gil points out that a large number of central banks are cutting rates or easing, and historically this is correlated with stronger commodity prices; given that easing, commodities appear not to have risen as much as they should have. The caveat is that the Fed's reaction function under Warsh could change near-term liquidity expectations.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 26:13

Metals correction may extend

Pablo Gil attributes the sharp Friday selloff to Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair, which was less dovish than investors expected. Warsh is seen as prioritizing monetary discipline, restoring Fed credibility, questioning the Fed put, reducing the probability of aggressive rate cuts and supporting the dollar. As a result, he thinks the short-term correction in precious metals may extend, especially in silver, where bearish candlestick and momentum signals point to more downside before the long-term bull case resumes.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 27:50

Warsh nomination may strengthen US dollar

Pablo Gil thinks the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair changes the dollar picture: Warsh is seen as less tolerant of inflation and less market-complacent than investors expected, which could restore Fed credibility, reduce the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts, weaken the Fed-put expectation, and strengthen the dollar. Therefore the prior weak-dollar trend is now in doubt; if the Fed does not cut much, DXY may not weaken further and could strengthen.

CAÍDA del oro y plata: ¿OPORTUNIDAD de compra o FIN del periodo alcista?

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