Will Trump ultimately deploy US ground troops? Soaring oil prices and a war that must end quickly; Korea also begins reviewing Hormuz Strait troop deployment | Professor Park Hyun-do, Sogang University Department of Religious Studies

Summary

Professor Park Hyun-do discusses the US-Iran war, arguing it is unlikely to end quickly despite Trump's short-war rhetoric because US ground troop deployment is constrained by casualty aversion. He sees Iran's strategy as maximizing oil prices and US military pressure ahead of US elections, with Brent already near $96 and Iran preferring $90-130. He also analyzes Hormuz shipping disruption, the ineffectiveness of sanctions, shifting Gulf state views of US bases, and Korea's potential troop deployment, warning that direct strikes on Iranian oil facilities would spike oil and crash equities.

• Trump says short war, but a Defense Secretary letter suggests operations may continue into next year and a ground war would require far more troops.
• Iran has shifted since July 7 to immediate retaliation and preemptive strikes, aiming to push oil prices up and inflict US casualties.
• Brent was around $96, WTI $92, and Dubai $104; Iran sees $90-130 Brent as favorable.
• Sanctions are seen as ineffective because Iran has long endured them and has overland export routes.
• Gulf neighbors are building pipeline/trucking alternatives to bypass Hormuz, but these take time and could be attacked.
• Korean troop deployment is under US pressure but unlikely to reopen Hormuz and risks Iranian attacks.
• A direct US attack on Iranian oil facilities would spike oil and crash equity markets, worsening inflation.