Walmart posts strong holiday growth, but earnings outlook falls short of estimates
Speakers
Andrew Ross Sorkin — Host
— CNBC Squawk Box host
Summary
- Walmart beat Q4 expectations on both top and bottom lines, driven by a 27% surge in US e-commerce sales.
- The retailer is seeing significant market share gains among upper-income cohorts, challenging competitors who traditionally dominate this demographic.
- Despite the strong performance, Walmart's FY guidance ($2.75-$2.85 EPS) fell short of Wall Street's expectations ($2.96), triggering a negative stock reaction.
- A historic milestone was reached: Amazon has officially surpassed Walmart in annual revenue.
Trade Ideas
A guest noted that while the long-term outlook is bullish, "in the near term prices look quite high relative to physical fundamentals." Price has decoupled from the immediate supply/demand reality, suggesting a mean-reversion or correction is due before the long-term thesis plays out. SHORT (Tactical). Supply shocks or rapid demand increase from electrification could keep prices elevated.
Walmart beat Q4 sales and revenue estimates with 27% e-commerce growth, yet provided FY EPS guidance of $2.75-$2.85, below the Street's $2.96 expectation. The fundamental engine is strong (15 straight quarters of double-digit e-commerce gains, faster delivery speeds), but the conservative guidance forces a valuation reset. The stock reaction reflects the disappointment in the outlook rather than the current operational excellence. WATCH. Wait for the post-earnings dip to stabilize; the underlying business is gaining share, but the immediate catalyst is negative. Continued conservative guidance or slowing consumer spending in the lower-income bracket.
"Amazon has officially surpassed Walmart in terms of annual revenue." This data point confirms Amazon's ascendancy as the dominant force in retail, validating its long-term strategy over brick-and-mortar incumbents. As Walmart chases e-commerce growth, Amazon has already won the scale war. LONG. Relative strength against the traditional retail leader. Regulatory scrutiny or slowing AWS growth (not mentioned, but standard risk).
Melissa Repko
CNBC Retail Reporter
Walmart's CFO noted market share gains are occurring "most notably in the upper income segment." Target historically relies on higher-income shoppers who avoid Walmart. If Walmart is successfully capturing this demographic through "speedy deliveries" and e-commerce, it directly erodes Target's competitive moat and core customer base. SHORT. Walmart's success up-market is a zero-sum loss for Target. Target may counter with its own loyalty incentives or merchandising wins.
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This CNBC video, published February 19, 2026, features Andrew Ross Sorkin, Melissa Repko discussing COPPER, WMT, AMZN, TGT. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Andrew Ross Sorkin, Melissa Repko · Tickers: COPPER, WMT, AMZN, TGT