The Macro Framework for Investing in the Next Decade w/ Mark Yusko

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 29, 2026 at 15:45  |  41:17  |  Milk Road Macro
Speakers
Mark Yusko — Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management

Summary

Mark Yusko discusses his framework for investing in innovation through the ABCDs—AI, blockchain, chips, and data—while emphasizing non-consensus thinking and infrastructure over crowded names. He shares his 2026 surprise list, including bearish calls on US stocks, Europe, the dollar, and Bitcoin in the near term, alongside bullish views on China, oil, and select hard assets. He also explains why he favors blockchain intelligence, fully homomorphic encryption, and companies like Google in AI.

  • Mark Yusko outlines an innovation-focused macro framework centered on AI, blockchain, chips, and data.
  • He prefers infrastructure and picks-and-shovels exposure over expensive private AI labs.
  • He names blockchain intelligence, fully homomorphic encryption, and Google as specific opportunities.
  • He expects Bitcoin institutional adoption to broaden but sees a crypto winter with no new highs in 2026.
  • His 2026 surprises include a US bear market, Mag 7 underperformance, a weaker dollar, and a stronger oil price.
  • He is bearish on Europe and the Japanese yen, and cautious on Japanese equities if the yen strengthens.
  • He remains bullish on China equities and sees Bitcoin ultimately reaching $400k–$500k in 2028–2029.
  • He warns the precious-metals debasement trade is late-stage.
Ideas
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 3:48
Raw data needs organizing to be valuable
Data is the new oil: raw stored data has little value until it is organized, refined, and made accessible, so the opportunity lies in the data layer and the infrastructure that makes data usable.
DATA MED
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 5:02
Chips are key to data processing
Chips and computing power are among the most exciting areas because processing data requires ever-smaller semiconductors, pushing against physics limits and creating opportunity across the compute stack.
SMH HIGH
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 5:12
Photons cut heat, extend distances
Photonics is an attractive area within semiconductors because shifting from electrons to photons reduces heat and allows data to travel greater distances, though finding the right substrate remains challenging.
Photonics MED
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 7:28
Blockchain is a core macro opportunity
Financial services is the largest industry with about $7 trillion of annual fees, and blockchain should disrupt it like the internet disrupted media and commerce; companies such as Coinbase, eToro, and Figure Technologies are evolving into this market.
BLOCKCHAIN COIN ETOR HIGH
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 9:01
Own AI picks and shovels
AI is a tool, not a standalone investment; he would avoid expensive LLM companies like OpenAI and xAI and instead own the infrastructure and picks-and-shovels layer underneath where others are less focused.
AIQ HIGH
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 16:42
Google wins AI with own TPUs
Google is positioned to win AI because it manufactures its own TPUs, while OpenAI must buy Nvidia chips with money it does not have; this vertical integration gives Google a cost and supply advantage.
GOOG MED
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 17:18
Encrypted compute solves privacy demand
Fully homomorphic encryption is attractive because it keeps data encrypted even while in use, solving a fundamental privacy problem; he invests in companies providing this math-based privacy infrastructure.
Fully homomorphic encryption HIGH
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 23:00
Endowments will follow Harvard into Bitcoin
Harvard's sizable Bitcoin allocation via IBIT should inspire other endowments to follow, continuing a slow but broadening institutional adoption curve for Bitcoin.
BTC MED
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 31:45
US stocks face bear-market surprise
Consensus expects US stocks to rise about 12%, but the surprise is a bear market; the market rarely delivers exactly 12%, and he sees better-than-even odds of downside.
SPY MED
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 32:37
Mag 7 become laggards
The Magnificent 7 are consensus favorites, but the surprise is they become laggards as investors start favoring smaller caps.
MAGS MED
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 32:52
Oil prices may firm unexpectedly
Political pressure favors low gasoline and supply currently exceeds demand, but the surprise is oil prices firm and Saudi Arabia gets the higher prices it wants.
WTI MED
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 33:20
Dollar has another bad year
Consensus expects the dollar to recover, but he thinks it will have another bad year and continue collapsing, partly because of intervention.
USD HIGH
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 33:33
Europe lacks growth and tech
After Europe's strong run, consensus is bullish, but he says Europe lacks growth, tech, and trillion-dollar companies, so it probably does not go up.
VGK MED
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 34:11
Yen is heading to zero
The yen is on its way to zero because Japan has no way out of its bad monetary and fiscal decisions; interventions can delay but not prevent the decline.
FXY MED
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 34:44
Strong yen would torch Japan equities
Japanese equities have been supported by yen weakness and the carry trade; if the yen strengthens, those equities could get torched.
EWJ MED
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 34:49
China equities will outperform
He loves China despite consensus hatred, citing local Chinese growth and a relative-advantage strategy in 5G, AI, and chip production that he expects to outperform.
FXI HIGH
Mark Yusko Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management 36:05
Precious metals debasement trade is late
The popular debasement trade in precious metals is long in the tooth and probably closer to the end than the beginning.
GLTR MED
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This Milk Road Macro video, published January 29, 2026, features Mark Yusko discussing DATA, SMH, Photonics, BLOCKCHAIN, COIN, ETOR, AIQ, GOOG, Fully homomorphic encryption, BTC, SPY, MAGS, WTI, USD, VGK, FXY, EWJ, FXI, GLTR. 17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mark Yusko  · Tickers: DATA, SMH, Photonics, BLOCKCHAIN, COIN, ETOR, AIQ, GOOG, Fully homomorphic encryption, BTC, SPY, MAGS, WTI, USD, VGK, FXY, EWJ, FXI, GLTR