Ideas
Rising long US rates threaten markets.
More than half of S&P corrections in the last 60 years were triggered by rising long-term US interest rates, usually due to inflation or growth concerns; the Fed controls the short rate but not the long curve, and he monitors global long-rate rises (Japan, UK) as a key market risk.
Overweight emerging markets on favorable global setup.
The global configuration is reasonably favorable for risk-taking, particularly emerging markets; Brazil is a beneficiary, and he recommends overweighting emerging markets versus the average global portfolio, seeing a continuation of last year's strength.
Gold is indispensable portfolio protection.
Gold is indispensable today: it protects wealth and the portfolio, reduces overall risk, and offers reasonable return; central-bank buying has accelerated post-2022 because reserve assets are less secure after Russian assets were frozen, geopolitical conflict is more intense, and gold allocations remain historically low versus Treasuries; it performs well in the current low-to-high growth with higher inflation quadrant.
Brazilian rates offer extraordinary risk premia.
Brazilian real 5-year yields around 8% and nominal 10-year yields near 14% offer risk premia more than two standard deviations above the 10-15 year historical average; while election and central bank cut timing are risks, he expects cuts likely from March, which should compress these premia; he prefers taking primary interest-rate risk over other Brazilian risks.
Brazil equities leverage falling interest rates.
Although he prefers the primary interest-rate trade, he holds Brazilian equities above structural weight because they are leveraged to falling interest rates; if the central bank starts cutting, small caps and high-beta B3 ETFs should benefit disproportionately, though election and FX risks could invalidate the central scenario.
US equities remain essential despite valuations.
Investors cannot avoid owning global equities, especially US equities, because the US economy is the most vibrant and its corporate DNA maximizes profit and entrepreneurship; despite high valuations, the economy renews itself and must be part of a portfolio.
Diversify 50/50 onshore and offshore.
Brazilian investors are extremely concentrated in Brazil even though Brazil is only about 1% of world GDP; he recommends first deciding Brazil versus abroad and building a roughly 50/50 onshore/offshore portfolio to diversify away from Brazil risk and capture global opportunities.
CDI and LCA are acceptable low-risk allocations.
For a moderate-risk local portfolio, he is comfortable with some exposure to CDI and tax-exempt LCA, which have low risk; the Brazilian tax exemption is an aberration but part of the game.
Brazilian credit risk-reward is unattractive.
He does not like credit in Brazil because the risk delta is incompatible with the return delta; investors assume much more risk than they are compensated for, with only rare exceptions.
Diversify global fixed income across currencies.
In the offshore portfolio he allocates 40-45% to global fixed income with currency risk, not only developed markets; he includes Europe/euro, Asia, and emerging-market currencies to diversify rate and currency exposure.
MSCI World preferred over S&P.
In the global equity allocation, he would not use the S&P 500 alone; he prefers MSCI World with a higher-than-average emerging-market weight, because it diversifies away from US concentration and the world environment favors emerging markets.
Add global hedge funds for diversification.
He would allocate about 10% to global hedge funds/multimercados as an absolute-return diversifier, reducing some cash/global fixed income to add this exposure.
Real assets improve portfolio diversification.
He recommends at least 10% in real assets, including global infrastructure and real estate, because the traditional 60/40 portfolio no longer provides enough protection; real assets add diversification and long-term return.
Copper miners benefit from AI infrastructure.
He holds copper miners at a reasonable 3-4% of the offshore portfolio because the world will be very copper-intensive; AI, data centers, and technology infrastructure will require much more copper, making it a structural theme.
Rare earth prices must rise.
He holds rare-earth miners because the world is extremely dependent on rare earths, China controls over 90% of processing, and prices will need to be much higher to incentivize new mining and capital deployment; Brazil is relevant in extraction.
Use B3 ETFs for global equities.
In the local portfolio he would allocate around 20% to global equities via B3-listed ETFs (hedged S&P, MSCI) to diversify alpha generation and reduce binary Brazilian election risk.
BRL-hedged US BB credit ETFs diversify.
On B3 he would add ETFs that provide US double-B corporate credit hedged to the real; historically they yield CDI plus TR annually with lower volatility and are uncorrelated with the Brazilian risk matrix, reducing domestic portfolio volatility without sacrificing return.
This Market Makers video, published January 28, 2026,
features Daniel Leichsenring
discussing TLT, EEM, GLD, GLTR, Tesouro Prefixado, NTN-B, EWZ, EWZS, SPY, VT, Global diversified portfolio, CDI, LCI, Brazilian credit, Global Fixed Income, URTH, Global hedge funds, GII, Global real assets, REET, COPX, REMX, Brazil-listed international equity ETFs, US BB credit ETFs (BRL-hedged).
17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Daniel Leichsenring
· Tickers:
TLT,
EEM,
GLD,
GLTR,
Tesouro Prefixado,
NTN-B,
EWZ,
EWZS,
SPY,
VT,
Global diversified portfolio,
CDI,
LCI,
Brazilian credit,
Global Fixed Income,
URTH,
Global hedge funds,
GII,
Global real assets,
REET,
COPX,
REMX,
Brazil-listed international equity ETFs,
US BB credit ETFs (BRL-hedged)
