Dólar fraco é o plano de Trump em ação | Acordo de Mar-a-Lago

Summary

Fernando Ulrich analyzes the Trump administration's deliberate policy to weaken the US dollar through communication, tacit agreements and interventions, including the de facto Mar-a-Lago accord. He argues this weak-dollar regime already pressures the dollar index and benefits emerging markets, especially Brazil, supporting the real below 5.00, Brazilian equities and EWZ. He also discusses tariff effects on the US trade deficit and highlights recent US-Japan currency coordination as historically important.

• Trump's comments are treated as evidence of a deliberate weak-dollar strategy.
• The Mar-a-Lago accord is seen as happening de facto through communication and interventions.
• Tariffs are helping reduce the US trade deficit, but the currency leg is increasingly active.
• Dollar index has fallen more than 10% and tested 96; sub-90 is watched.
• A weaker dollar is expected to benefit emerging markets broadly.
• Brazilian real may strengthen below 5.00, with fair value near 4.75.
• Brazilian equities and EWZ are supported by favorable external and domestic conditions.
• US-Japan yen coordination is highlighted as symbolic and historic.