A Semiconductor Cycle Different from the Past; KOSDAQ Bio Returns Expected to Stay Strong in 2026! | Na Jeong-hwan, Yeo Do-eun, Heo Jae-mu

과거와 다른 반도체 사이클, 26년 코스닥 바이오 수익율 강세 지속 예상! | 나정환, 여도은, 허재무 [아침N투자]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 12, 2026 at 03:00  |  53:00  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Na Jeong-hwan — Analyst, NH Investment & Securities
Heo Jaemu — Host

Summary

Na Jeong-hwan, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, discussed a strong Korean market and laid out a constructive view with KOSPI targeting 5,500 and KOSDAQ targeting 1,100. He emphasized a different semiconductor cycle supported by Fed rate cuts, AI capex, Korean semiconductor equipment/materials, and policy/National Growth Fund flows. He also covered oil’s downside, defense/shipbuilding, physical AI battery names, nuclear/power equipment, biotech large caps, and the dollar as a key H2 risk.

  • Korean equities remain strong, with KOSPI seen reaching 5,500 and KOSDAQ 1,100.
  • Na sees corrections, including any Trump tariff ruling shock, as buying opportunities.
  • Semiconductor cycle is unusual because Fed cuts are coinciding with an upcycle; Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are favored.
  • KOSDAQ equipment/materials and biotech large caps are highlighted as high-beta implementation ideas.
  • AI infrastructure, power equipment, and nuclear are core themes, while physical AI supports Hyundai Motor, LG Energy Solution, and Samsung SDI.
  • Oil is expected to fall on higher Venezuelan supply, helping inflation and Fed cuts.
  • The dollar index is the key H2 monitor for Korean relative performance.
  • Defense and shipbuilding are expected to retain policy/geopolitical momentum.
Ideas
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 3:48
KOSPI can reach 5,500; buy dips.
He maintains a constructive KOSPI view with a 5,500 target and notes other brokers have raised targets to 5,600-5,700. Even if the Trump tariff Supreme Court ruling or another risk triggers a correction, he would treat it as a buying opportunity because AI capex, Fed rate cuts, and a weaker dollar should support Korean equities.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 11:43
AI capex drives further market upside.
AI capex remains the main driver of the market; as big tech reports 4Q results and announces 2026 capex plans in Q2/Q3, AI infrastructure investment should provide stronger upside momentum, aided by rate-cut expectations.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 13:20
Geopolitical risk supports Korean defense stocks.
Geopolitical risks such as Iran/Venezuela are a long-term positive for defense; near-term risk can boost defense and defense-related equities even if the market initially shows limited impact.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 13:39
WTI oil likely falls to low 50s.
Venezuela/Iran headlines may cause short-term noise, but US oil companies entering Venezuela and Trump’s drill-baby-drill supply policy should push WTI down to the low $50s. Lower oil would ease inflation and support additional Fed cuts, which is ultimately positive for equities.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 23:33
Watch dollar index for Korea performance.
The dollar is the key variable for H2 Korean equity relative performance. A weaker dollar supports emerging markets including Korea, but if Fed cuts in H1 and US growth accelerates in H2 from OBB tax cuts, the dollar could strengthen. A DXY move toward 96-100 is benign, while a spike toward 110 would likely hurt Korean relative returns.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 30:49
Hyundai Motor benefits from hybrid, physical AI.
Hyundai Motor is still mainly an auto company, but its core business is improving: it shifted well to hybrids after the IRA-related EV slowdown and expanded large hybrid SUV sales in the US, while CES and physical AI momentum add upside. He is positive but advises scaling in given the sharp short-term rally.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 32:05
Buy Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
This semiconductor cycle is different because it is occurring alongside Fed rate cuts rather than rate hikes, which historically amplifies semiconductor rallies. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are his preferred picks, supported by both top-down and bottom-up factors.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 35:53
KOSDAQ heading toward 1,100 on policy.
He expects KOSDAQ to reach around 1,100 as policy-driven flows increase through venture investment and the National Growth Fund, institutional and pension allocation expands, and discount factors such as rights offerings are resolved. Current range-bound action does not change the upward direction.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 39:07
National Growth Fund favors AI, semiconductors, mobility.
The National Growth Fund is expected to focus on new-growth sectors, especially AI, semiconductors, and mobility, which should support large-cap AI, semiconductor, and auto/mobility names in Korea.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 39:42
KOSDAQ semiconductor equipment/materials momentum improving.
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials lagged last year because capex focused on HBM; with DRAM spot prices rising and Samsung/SK hynix announcing capacity expansion, KOSDAQ IT equipment/materials should gain momentum.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 42:32
Buy KOSDAQ biotech large-cap basket.
In a KOSDAQ-favored market, high-beta large-cap biotech tends to outperform; historical comparisons show top 10-20 KOSDAQ biotech baskets beating the index in strong KOSDAQ years like 2020 and 2023. The JP Morgan healthcare conference is an additional catalyst.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 45:58
Hold nuclear and power equipment exposure.
AI infrastructure investment also increases power demand, so he says semiconductors, power equipment, and nuclear should remain core holdings in the AI side of the portfolio.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 46:13
Buy underhighlighted physical AI battery names.
Within AI, he prefers physical AI-related names that have not yet been highlighted. He specifically says to hold Hyundai Group, LG Energy Solution, and Samsung SDI as underappreciated AI/physical AI beneficiaries.
Na Jeong-hwan Analyst, NH Investment & Securities 49:23
Kia is lagging but fundamentally solid.
Kia’s fundamentals are solid, with hybrids and better Europe EV sales, but the stock has lagged as market attention crowded into AI. If AI enthusiasm cools, Kia could be revalued higher, and he remains positive on the auto industry overall.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 12, 2026, features Na Jeong-hwan discussing EWY, AIQ, Korean defense sector, WTI, US Dollar Index (DXY), 005380.KS, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, KOSDAQ, Korean AI, semiconductor, and mobility sectors, Korean semiconductor equipment/materials sector, KOSDAQ biotech top market-cap basket, Korean nuclear/power equipment sector, 373220.KS, 006400.KS, 000270.KS. 14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Na Jeong-hwan  · Tickers: EWY, AIQ, Korean defense sector, WTI, US Dollar Index (DXY), 005380.KS, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, KOSDAQ, Korean AI, semiconductor, and mobility sectors, Korean semiconductor equipment/materials sector, KOSDAQ biotech top market-cap basket, Korean nuclear/power equipment sector, 373220.KS, 006400.KS, 000270.KS