Ideas
Chinese AI wins via cheap models
Geromel argues the SaaS subscription model never took hold in China; Chinese companies instead built an open-source, low-cost software culture. He notes that recently more tokens from Chinese companies were consumed than from American companies, even in Silicon Valley, and that among the world's 100 largest AI clients more than half are Chinese, while only four of the top 100 by AI revenue are Chinese. The implication is that China is playing a long-term adoption and scale game rather than near-term monetization, making Chinese AI models almost as good as US models but far cheaper.
Cheap Chinese models make Magalu AI viable
Fred says Magalu's e-commerce AI agent will consume 5 trillion tokens this year. Magalu uses expensive paid American models where necessary and Chinese open-source models for more basic responses; the Chinese models are nearly as good and cost practically nothing or a fraction of American models. He states that if Magalu used only American models for those 5 trillion tokens, the Magalu business model would not stand, making cheap Chinese open-source AI a critical cost and viability edge.
China leads industrial and humanoid robotics
Fred observes that supplier factories in China are almost fully automated with robots. Geromel adds that China has more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined and has begun buying the companies that make these robots, dominating the entire chain. In humanoid robots, China is by far the global leader; the two largest companies are Unitree and AgiBot. Current humanoid use is limited to universities and events, but Geromel frames it like Bill Gates's early PC vision and says China sees robots as the answer to its demographic decline.
BYD and GWM lead through efficiency
Fred argues China is so efficient it does not need tariff advantages, yet in Brazil Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers and electric vehicle kits are taxed less than imports by Brazilian retailers or kits of regular engines. This 'injusta' competition, combined with brutal domestic competition in China, makes Chinese EVs such as BYD and GWM exceptionally competitive; he notes these previously unknown brands are already leading in Brazil.
BGI disrupts Illumina with cheaper sequencing
Geromel says sequencing a person's DNA cost around $1000 twenty years ago, $500 today and will soon cost near $100. The world's largest sequencing company, Illumina, is being disrupted by China's BGI Beijing Genomics Institute, whose genetic sequencing machines are much cheaper and better than Illumina's materials. BGI began sweeping the world, but the US government banned it from the American market, which Geromel frames as protecting US corporate health rather than public health. He says Brazilian health executives are already looking to China as a health model, calling it a coming tsunami.
BGI disrupts Illumina with cheaper sequencing
Geromel says sequencing a person's DNA cost around $1000 twenty years ago, $500 today and will soon cost near $100. The world's largest sequencing company, Illumina, is being disrupted by China's BGI Beijing Genomics Institute, whose genetic sequencing machines are much cheaper and better than Illumina's materials. BGI began sweeping the world, but the US government banned it from the American market, which Geromel frames as protecting US corporate health rather than public health. He says Brazilian health executives are already looking to China as a health model, calling it a coming tsunami.
Chinese electronics match quality at lower prices
Fred says the shift in perception of Chinese products mirrors what happened with Korean brands like Samsung and LG. Today Chinese engineering has reached Korean and sometimes above-Japanese quality: TCL 115-inch TVs match top Korean image quality, Huawei's triple-screen foldable is impressive, and Chinese brands bring accessible prices because of brutal domestic competition / involução. Brazilian consumers are open to switching, and Chinese brands are also succeeding in cars, electronics, sneakers and cosmetics.
This Market Makers video, published August 23, 2026,
features Ricardo Geromel, Fred Trajano
discussing Chinese artificial intelligence, MGLU3.SA, ROBO, GWM, 1211.HK, BGI Genomics, ILMN, TCL.
7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Ricardo Geromel,
Fred Trajano
· Tickers:
Chinese artificial intelligence,
MGLU3.SA,
ROBO,
GWM,
1211.HK,
BGI Genomics,
ILMN,
TCL
