Name: Market Death Cross Alert: 'Everything Bubble' Pops In 2026, Watch This Indicator | Richard Smith
Uploaded: 2025-12-08T22:58:13+00:00
Duration: 2328 s

Speakers

Richard Smith — Chairman of the Board and Executive Director, Foundation for the Study of Cycles

Summary

Richard Smith applies cycles and liquidity analysis to Bitcoin, equities, gold, silver, the dollar, and the Treasury market. He expects a near-term Bitcoin bottom and liquidity-driven rallies in crypto and equities, a correction in gold and silver, and a 2026 dollar rally. He watches bond-market volatility indicators while warning that a larger debt or currency crisis could develop around mid-2026.

Richard Smith says Bitcoin's cycle correction is near bottom and liquidity should improve.
He expects Fed QT stop, likely stealth QE, and rate cuts to support equities, Bitcoin, and Ethereum near term.
He expects gold and silver to correct or move sideways-to-down over 6 to 12 months.
He sees the dollar forming a bottom and rallying significantly in 2026.
He watches the MOVE index and high-yield spreads for signs of debt-market stress.
He warns a broader debt/currency crisis could arrive around mid-2026.
He is skeptical of the AI/data-center capex productivity narrative.
He says natural gas is a mainstream asset that cycles analysis handles poorly.

Ideas

Richard Smith Chairman of the Board and Executive Director, Foundation for the Study of Cycles 6:17

Bitcoin bottoming; liquidity lifts crypto.

Richard sees Bitcoin's cycles as having predicted the October 2025 top and now signaling a bottom, with the correction close to running its course. He points to improving liquidity as the Fed stops quantitative tightening and likely moves toward stealth QE and rate cuts, very negative sentiment, and bullish seasonality, and he expects Bitcoin and Ethereum to rally as liquidity returns.

Richard Smith Chairman of the Board and Executive Director, Foundation for the Study of Cycles 12:12

Liquidity and seasonality lift equities.

With the Fed stopping QT and likely easing, Treasury-market volatility low, no near-term crisis, record AI-related bond issuance helping keep yields down, and the most bullish seasonal window ahead, Richard expects liquidity to return and equities to rally, probably to new all-time highs.

Richard Smith Chairman of the Board and Executive Director, Foundation for the Study of Cycles 17:24

Watch MOVE for debt stress.

The MOVE index, the bond market's VIX, is a key indicator: bond volatility has fallen sharply to near historic lows and a strong cycle suggests it may keep declining, supporting Treasuries as collateral and the refinancing system. He wants to watch for rising bond volatility, along with rising high-yield option-adjusted spreads, as a warning of bigger financial-asset corrections.

Richard Smith Chairman of the Board and Executive Director, Foundation for the Study of Cycles 20:50

Gold and silver face correction.

Richard's cycle work shows gold topping, with the top three cycles pointing to a top after the October high, and he is more inclined to expect a correction in gold and silver, with sideways-to-down action over the next 6 to 12 months. He does not expect a collapse because central-bank buying and deficit/debasement concerns provide support.

Richard Smith Chairman of the Board and Executive Director, Foundation for the Study of Cycles 22:55

Dollar bottoming; 2026 rally likely.

Richard sees the dollar forming a bottom; it could see a little more downside or even a new low, but cyclic momentum is holding and rising, and he expects a significant dollar rally in 2026, which would pressure dollar-priced assets such as gold for US investors.

Market Death Cross Alert: 'Everything Bubble' Pops In 2026, Watch This Indicator | Richard Smith

Summary

Ideas

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