‘This Makes Me Nervous’: Trader Reveals Next Moves For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold | Jason Shapiro

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  December 04, 2025 at 23:24  |  45:28  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
Jason Shapiro — Founder, Crowded Market Report

Summary

Jason Shapiro tells David Lin that this remains the most hated bull market he has seen and warns against trying to short a top while passive flows and policy liquidity support risk assets. He also discusses prediction-market arbitrage, a potential dovish Fed chair, AI-bubble fears, Bitcoin, gold and silver, and his preferred currency trades. His core positioning bias is long equities and hard assets, with a contrarian short-dollar/long-yen/long-Canada FX view.

  • Jason Shapiro says this is a hated bull market and argues investors should not fight the tape by shorting tops.
  • He attributes persistent equity upside to passive 401k flows and central-bank/government liquidity.
  • He sees arbitrage opportunities in new prediction markets such as Kalshi versus established markets like CME FedWatch.
  • A likely dovish Fed chair under Hassett would, in his view, support short-end bonds and potentially stocks, though much may be discounted.
  • He dismisses AI-bubble shorting near highs and notes many low-quality AI names have already corrected sharply while Nvidia has held up.
  • He is bullish gold and silver because of continued money printing and owns a small personal Bitcoin position as a debasement hedge.
  • His favored FX trades are short U.S. dollar, long Japanese yen, and long Canadian dollar, with Canada preferred over the yen.
  • He is nervous about complacency that markets cannot fall because policymakers will always support them.
Ideas
Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 2:24
Don't fight this hated bull market
Jason argues this is the most hated bull market he has seen: investors are obsessed with calling a top and perma-bears cite an AI bubble, yen carry unwind, or MSTR/Bitcoin, but the market keeps grinding higher. Passive 401k flows and central-bank/government liquidity creation are persistent supports, and betting against the Fed, fiscal liquidity, and the tape has repeatedly hurt bears. He says to err long in equities until the market actually stops acting well.
SPY HIGH
Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 9:52
Arbitrage prediction markets versus real markets
Jason sees an opportunity in new prediction markets such as Kalshi because hedge funds and other large players may not yet be set up to trade them. He would compare Kalshi contract odds with the same odds implied by established markets, such as CME FedWatch or bond futures; for example, December Fed-cut odds were around 89% on CME versus 93-94% on Kalshi, potentially a 4% arbitrage if bid-ask spreads are tight. He also warns spreads may eliminate the edge.
Kalshi prediction-market contracts MED
Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 13:47
Dovish Fed chair favors short-end bonds
Prediction markets and CME FedWatch suggest Kevin Hassett is likely to be the next Fed chair, and Jason views Hassett as likely dovish. If so, the direct trade is for lower interest rates, especially in the short end of the bond market. He cautions that the market may already price much of it and that positioning and the actual market reaction to the announcement matter.
Short-end U.S. Treasuries MED
Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 31:24
Owns small Bitcoin for debasement hedge
Jason owns a small personal Bitcoin position, a few percent of savings, because he sees potential in it as a store-of-value/debasement hedge, similar to the case for gold. He is explicit that he is not a Bitcoin expert and that he can imagine it becoming worthless, so his position is small and not part of managed accounts.
BTC MED
Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 37:26
Money printing keeps gold and silver bid
Jason argues that if central banks and governments keep printing money and running loose fiscal policy, gold should continue higher, and the same logic applies to silver. He sees no sign of an end to money printing, so he does not know why gold or silver would stop rising; gold has little utility beyond being a store of value but has worked as one for thousands of years.
GLD SILVER HIGH
Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 40:46
Short dollar, long yen and Canada
Jason likes shorting the U.S. dollar and going long the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar based on his positioning work. He says people are most short and bearish on these currencies, especially Canada; Canada is the currency people are most short and it has started acting well, so shorts may be forced to cover. He prefers Canada over the yen.
UUP MED
Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 40:46
Short dollar, long yen and Canada
Jason likes shorting the U.S. dollar and going long the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar based on his positioning work. He says people are most short and bearish on these currencies, especially Canada; Canada is the currency people are most short and it has started acting well, so shorts may be forced to cover. He prefers Canada over the yen.
FXY CAD MED
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This The David Lin Report video, published December 04, 2025, features Jason Shapiro discussing SPY, Kalshi prediction-market contracts, Short-end U.S. Treasuries, BTC, GLD, SILVER, UUP, FXY, CAD. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jason Shapiro  · Tickers: SPY, Kalshi prediction-market contracts, Short-end U.S. Treasuries, BTC, GLD, SILVER, UUP, FXY, CAD