Kalshi prediction-market contracts Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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23:24
Dec 04
Dec 04
Arbitrage prediction markets versus real markets
Jason sees an opportunity in new prediction markets such as Kalshi because hedge funds and other large players may not yet be set up to trade them. He would compare Kalshi contract odds with the same odds implied by established markets, such as CME FedWatch or bond futures; for example, December Fed-cut odds were around 89% on CME versus 93-94% on Kalshi, potentially a 4% arbitrage if bid-ask spreads are tight. He also warns spreads may eliminate the edge.
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About Kalshi prediction-market contracts Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks Kalshi prediction-market contracts across 1 sources: 0 bullish vs 0 bearish calls from 1 authors. Historical directional balance: 0% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 1 total trade idea tracked. Latest voices: Jason Shapiro.