China still concerned with backlash from taking back Taiwan, says Semper CEO Robert Spalding

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 02, 2026 at 13:54  |  5:00  |  CNBC
Speakers
Robert Spalding — Ret. Air Force Brigadier General and CEO, Semper

Summary

Robert Spalding discusses China's Taiwan reunification pledge, why Beijing may be restrained by trade backlash, and the risk that further decoupling could make China more aggressive. He expects a Taiwan crisis would prompt U.S.-led sanctions and trade cutoffs, warns of disruptions to U.S. digital infrastructure and the power grid, and highlights the semiconductor production chokehold in Taiwan. He says the Pentagon is quietly accelerating U.S. manufacturing reshoring and industrial-base rebuilding, while rare earths and other supply-chain inputs remain vulnerable.

  • China has the capability to pressure Taiwan but may be restrained by trade backlash and its economy.
  • Further decoupling from the West could make China more aggressive.
  • A Taiwan conflict would likely trigger sanctions and broader trade cutoffs against China.
  • Taiwan's semiconductor concentration is a choke point driving U.S. reshoring.
  • The Pentagon is quietly rebuilding the U.S. industrial base and friendly-country production.
  • A Taiwan crisis could disrupt U.S. digital infrastructure, the power grid, and rare earth supply chains.
  • U.S. manufacturers remain dependent on Chinese subcomponents despite efforts to change.
Ideas
Robert Spalding Ret. Air Force Brigadier General and CEO, Semper 1:56
Taiwan chip risk drives US reshoring.
Taiwan's concentration of semiconductor production creates a geopolitical choke point for China, so the Biden and Trump administrations have accelerated moving chip manufacturing back to the U.S.; the Pentagon is also working to rebuild production capacity at home and in friendly countries.
SMH MED
Robert Spalding Ret. Air Force Brigadier General and CEO, Semper 2:12
Pentagon quietly rebuilds US industrial base.
The Pentagon, through Steve Feinberg, is quietly and aggressively working to reestablish the U.S. industrial base and production in friendly countries; this effort has been underway for years, is accelerating in ways the business community underestimates, and should pay off over the next couple of years.
U.S. industrial base HIGH
Robert Spalding Ret. Air Force Brigadier General and CEO, Semper 3:23
US grid, digital infrastructure vulnerable.
A Taiwan crisis could cause disruption to U.S. digital infrastructure and the power grid; malware is already embedded throughout the country, so these systems are vulnerable to further isolation and supply-cutoff scenarios.
U.S. power grid U.S. digital infrastructure MED
Robert Spalding Ret. Air Force Brigadier General and CEO, Semper 3:39
Taiwan crisis risks rare earth supply.
If a Taiwan crisis occurs, the U.S. could be further isolated and cut off from critical supply-chain inputs, including rare earths and other materials; Chinese components are often transshipped through third countries, making them difficult to identify and increasing supply-chain vulnerability.
REMX MED
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This CNBC video, published January 02, 2026, features Robert Spalding discussing SMH, U.S. industrial base, U.S. power grid, U.S. digital infrastructure, REMX. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Robert Spalding  · Tickers: SMH, U.S. industrial base, U.S. power grid, U.S. digital infrastructure, REMX