Soya's Yoshiko Yamaguchi on trade tensions between the U.S. and Japan

"She wants to bring back some key area back to Japan and such as strategic security defense area and make it made in Japan possible... such as the heavy industry... could be beneficiary." Takeuchi's "Made in Japan" policy explicitly targets national security and defense. This creates a direct pipeline of government spending and structural support for Japan's heavy industrial conglomerates (like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - 7011.T) that form the backbone of this sector. LONG heavy industrials and defense as the primary beneficiaries of the new administration's industrial policy. Failure of the administration to pass specific budget allocations or improved relations with China reducing the urgency for domestic defense production.

"She wants to make sure people improve their affordability... suspend two years consumption tax on the food... It could be a little bit dovish normalization." The combination of fiscal stimulus (tax suspensions/refunds) to boost consumer confidence and a central bank that is "afraid to drive too fast" (slow rate hikes) creates a "Goldilocks" scenario for Japanese equities. The market remains supported by liquidity while domestic demand is artificially stimulated. LONG broad Japanese equities (Nikkei/EWJ) and hedged equity (DXJ) as the macro environment remains accommodative despite the global tightening narrative. A sudden spike in JGB yields or the Yen strengthening rapidly beyond 150/140, which would hurt export-heavy indices.

"We passed the highly volatile frame already... Takichi government doesn't want to have a high yield." While the "historic volatility" might be over, the government's explicit desire to suppress yields suggests a ceiling on JGBs, but also limits the potential for aggressive Yen strengthening. This implies a period of stabilization rather than a directional breakout. WATCH for stability; the trade is likely the *absence* of a crisis rather than a sharp move in either direction. Uncontrolled inflation forcing the BOJ's hand earlier than the "April-June" timeline.