[26.01.20. Afternoon Full Broadcast] Why Did the US Choose 'Oil Prices' Over War? The Start of Dismantling the Anti-US Alliance, What Is Trump's 'Real Goal'?

[26.01.20. 오후 방송 전체보기] '미국은 왜 전쟁보다 ‘유가’를 선택했나' 반미연대 해체 시작, 트럼프가 노리는 '진짜 목표'는?
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 20, 2026 at 12:57  |  5:57:09  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Jang Woo-jin — Writer
Kim Jang-yeol — Reporter, The Bell
Park Geun-hyung — Director
So Hyeon-cheol — Adjunct Professor, Sangji University
Kwon Hyo-jae — CEO, COR Energy Insight
Kwon Soon-woo — Reporting Team Lead, 3PRO TV
Baek Jong-hoon — Reporter

Summary

The broadcast covers a Korean market pause near 5,000, with rotation into small caps and sectors such as defense, nuclear, telecom, semiconductors, financials, bio, and petrochemicals. A geopolitical interview argues Trump is prioritizing lower oil and petrodollar defense over war, implying lower WTI, a stronger won, and a supportive equity backdrop. A separate segment concludes Arctic shipping is not yet economically viable for Korea, while Chinese shipbuilders are rapidly closing the technology gap. Hyperinflation history and a tobacco lawsuit segment round out the episode.

  • KOSPI paused after a 13-day rally, with small/mid-caps and KOSDAQ showing rotation.
  • Daily Hint favored K-defense, nuclear/power, telecom, memory semiconductors, financials, biotech, and petrochemicals.
  • Park Geun-hyung warned that many Korean robot stocks lack valuation support.
  • So Hyun-chul argued Trump wants lower oil to control inflation and protect the petrodollar.
  • So Hyun-chul expected WTI below $50, USD/KRW below 1,400, and equities to benefit from lower oil and rates.
  • Kwon Hyo-jae said Chinese private shipyards are catching up and Arctic NSR shipping remains uneconomic.
  • Historical hyperinflation cases and a tobacco lawsuit were discussed as cautionary and legal segments.
Ideas
KOSDAQ outperforms as large caps pause
Large-cap leadership is taking a breather, so small and mid-cap stocks and the KOSDAQ can outperform this week as funds rotate away from large caps.
Korean manufacturing re-rating lifts KOSPI
Korean manufacturing has scarce offline and physical AI data, factories, and industrial assets that global firms need for physical AI. This can re-rate Korean manufacturing PBR and lift the KOSPI over time.
Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 11:35
Buy Samsung and SK hynix dips
Semiconductor fundamentals remain strong and semiconductor tariffs are mostly sentiment noise. Samsung Electronics has a five-point Q4 earnings-call checklist on memory contracts, capex, HBM4, profitability mix, and foundry customers; if satisfied, the stock can reach 300,000 won. SK hynix earnings expectations also remain positive.
Buy lagging bio, cosmetics, inbound dips
Avoid chasing hot themes. Instead, wait for lagging but improving sectors such as bio, cosmetics, inbound travel, and entertainment, which have earnings improvement and can be bought on dips.
Japan politics and JGB risk
Japan faces political uncertainty from Takaichi's lower-house dissolution and fiscal expansion, with 40-year JGB yields above 4%. After a large rally, Japanese stocks are vulnerable to correction and could fall further.
Broadening rally supports KOSPI upside
The Korean market is strong despite technical overheat. Sector broadening and rotation are positive, so the index can digest gains and continue higher.
Record earnings but weak flow
PharmaResearch is likely to report record Q4 earnings and the stock is undervalued, but weak supply and demand are keeping it depressed until flow improves.
Silicon2 earnings and expansion support upside
Silicon2's Q4 profit missed only because of bonuses; excluding bonuses it beat. US and Canada returned to growth, the Middle East warehouse began operations, and its brand-selection capability makes it a top cosmetics pick.
K-defense export momentum reaccelerates
JP Morgan keeps an overweight view on Korean defense as export momentum reaccelerates. Hanwha Aerospace benefits from Poland K9/Chunmoo and non-Poland exports with a 1.6 million won target; Hyundai Rotem from K2 deliveries and Finland/Egypt with a 290,000 won target; LIG Nex1 has a 650,000 won target; Korea Aerospace has a 180,000 won target.
Nuclear and power names rebound
The government is moving toward new nuclear and SMR construction, and public opinion is favorable. Korea Electric Power is improving financially through restructuring and stake acquisition, while nuclear-related names are rebounding.
Artemis 2 lifts Korean space stocks
The Artemis 2 lunar mission is scheduled for early February and Davos discussions on private-space cooperation create positive momentum for Korean space and aerospace stocks.
Telecom earnings and returns improve
Telecom 2026 operating profit is expected to rise 24.8% on cost efficiency and lower depreciation, with shareholder returns improving. SK Telecom additionally benefits from its Anthropic stake and subscriber inflows after KT's penalty waiver.
Memory supply tight; buy dips
A full 100% semiconductor tariff is unlikely because direct US exports are only about 10% and broader tariffs would raise US inflation. Memory supply is tight, DDR4 prices are up 50%, inventories are near lows, and NAND output cuts support pricing, making semiconductor dips a buying opportunity.
Micron benefits from AI memory shortage
Micron says the AI memory shortage is unprecedented, capacity expansion is slow, and a large insider purchase signals conviction. Use corrections to buy.
NAND cuts hurt equipment/materials
Samsung and SK hynix are cutting NAND wafer output to maximize profitability. This reduces equipment and materials demand and is negative for Korean semiconductor equipment and materials sentiment.
Valuation-less robot stocks can fall
Many Korean robot stocks lack valuation support and were inflated by ETF and structured-product buying. They can fall sharply if momentum reverses.
Governance reforms lift Korean financials
Third commercial law revision and treasury share cancellation push improve the Korea discount. Banks also have Q4 earnings momentum from dividend tax changes, treasury share retirement, and value-up policies.
Korean biotech deals validate sector
Global big pharma deals continue to validate Korean biotech. Obesity, CNS, and RNA remain key areas with active deal flow.
Alteogen deal validates hyaluronidase technology
Alteogen's hyaluronidase license deal with a GSK/Halozyme customer validates its technology despite patent concerns. The target drug Jemperli has blockbuster potential, and royalties can scale with sales.
UBS cuts Hyundai, prefers Kia/Mobis
UBS downgraded Hyundai Motor to Neutral after the robot rally, saying risk-reward has deteriorated and the target is reached. Kia and Hyundai Mobis remain Buy with more valuation appeal.
UBS cuts Hyundai, prefers Kia/Mobis
UBS downgraded Hyundai Motor to Neutral after the robot rally, saying risk-reward has deteriorated and the target is reached. Kia and Hyundai Mobis remain Buy with more valuation appeal.
China stimulus aids petrochemical rebound
A first-quarter petrochemical rebound is expected from Chinese policy stimulus, Spring Festival restocking, and the lowest new capacity additions in years.
So Hyeon-cheol Adjunct Professor, Sangji University 206:35
Trump policy pushes WTI below $50
Trump is prioritizing lower oil over war to reduce US inflation and protect the petrodollar. Controlling Venezuela and Iran supply can push WTI from around $58 to below $50.
So Hyeon-cheol Adjunct Professor, Sangji University 210:04
Won strengthens below 1,400
US rate cuts should narrow the rate gap while lower oil improves Korea's trade balance, supporting the won below 1,400 per dollar.
So Hyeon-cheol Adjunct Professor, Sangji University 224:51
Lower oil and rates boost KOSPI
Lower oil leads to lower inflation and rate cuts, a favorable environment for equities. Current volatility should be treated as opportunity.
Kwon Hyo-jae CEO, COR Energy Insight 234:12
China shipbuilders close gap on Korea
Chinese private shipyards such as Zhou Shan Chang Hong and Hengli Heavy are catching up qualitatively through automation, diverse vessel types, LNG dual-fuel ships, and faster capacity expansion. Korean shipbuilders should not be complacent, though US icebreaker orders could provide an opportunity if Korea secures core technology.
Kwon Hyo-jae CEO, COR Energy Insight 310:52
Arctic shipping uneconomic; HMM burden
Arctic NSR shipping is currently uneconomic. It requires 10 years of losses, expensive icebreakers, LNG fuel, higher crew costs, and no clear Korean strategic need. If HMM is forced to operate it, it would be a financial burden.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 20, 2026, features Jang Woo-jin, Kim Jang-yeol, Park Geun-hyung, So Hyeon-cheol, Kwon Hyo-jae discussing KOSDAQ, EWY, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, Korean bio sector, KORU, Korean inbound/travel sector, Korean Entertainment Sector, EWJ, 214450.KQ, 257720.KQ, 012450.KS, 064350.KS, 079550.KS, 047810.KS, 015760.KS, KEPCO E&C, Woori Technology, Korean space/aerospace sector, 017670.KS, 030200.KS, 032640.KS, MU, Korean semiconductor equipment/materials sector, BOTZ, 105560.KS, 055550.KS, 086790.KS, Korean securities sector, Korean biotech sector, 196170.KQ, 005380.KS, 000270.KS, 012330.KS, KOREAN PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR, WTI, USD/KRW, Korean shipbuilding sector, 011200.KS. 27 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jang Woo-jin, Kim Jang-yeol, Park Geun-hyung, So Hyeon-cheol, Kwon Hyo-jae  · Tickers: KOSDAQ, EWY, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, Korean bio sector, KORU, Korean inbound/travel sector, Korean Entertainment Sector, EWJ, 214450.KQ, 257720.KQ, 012450.KS, 064350.KS, 079550.KS, 047810.KS, 015760.KS, KEPCO E&C, Woori Technology, Korean space/aerospace sector, 017670.KS, 030200.KS, 032640.KS, MU, Korean semiconductor equipment/materials sector, BOTZ, 105560.KS, 055550.KS, 086790.KS, Korean securities sector, Korean biotech sector, 196170.KQ, 005380.KS, 000270.KS, 012330.KS, KOREAN PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR, WTI, USD/KRW, Korean shipbuilding sector, 011200.KS