Today's panel weighs in on retail trading activity, tariffs, and what seems like a rangebound market
Speakers
Summary
- 2026 Market Regime: Tom Sosnoff argues that the market has entered a new era where tariff rhetoric no longer drives volatility as it did in the past. The current algorithmic behavior is "buy the dip," with every sell-off being absorbed quickly.
- Nvidia as a Laggard: Despite strong fundamentals, Nvidia (NVDA) is described as having traded sideways and is only up 2% year-to-date in 2026. This lowers the bar for earnings beats compared to previous years.
- The "AI Food Chain" Trade: The focus has shifted from just the chipmakers to the industrial infrastructure supporting them—specifically power, grid, and data center construction (GE, Vertiv, Quanta Services).
- Regulatory Headwinds: There is a growing consensus that AI regulation will become a central political theme, potentially appearing in the State of the Union address, driven by fears of job automation.
Trade Ideas
Stephanie notes that NVDA has been "sideways for a while" and is only up 2% year-to-date, meaning expectations are low. Simultaneously, industrial companies like GE, Vertiv (VRT), and Quanta Services (PWR) have reported "blockbuster numbers with blockbuster orders" related to the grid and data centers. The "AI trade" is no longer just about the chip; it is about the "whole food chain" (power/grid). If the industrial vendors (GE/VRT/PWR) are seeing massive orders, it confirms demand for the underlying chips (NVDA). Since NVDA hasn't rallied yet (price lag), a good earnings report could trigger a catch-up trade. LONG NVDA as the laggard and LONG the industrial infrastructure plays (GE/VRT/PWR) as the confirmed beneficiaries of spend. If NVDA guidance is weak, the entire "food chain" trade could unravel.
Retail trading activity is heavily concentrated in just a few names: Tesla, Micron, and Nvidia. There is an "incredible amount of action in the derivatives market" for these three. High retail derivative participation usually creates high implied volatility and "choppy" price action. Sosnoff notes the market is rangebound/choppy. WATCH. These are liquidity centers, but the high retail concentration suggests potential for volatility crush or erratic moves rather than a clean trend. Retail capitulation could cause rapid downside moves.
Sosnoff says he pays "more attention to... Gold and Silver... and to a certain extent Bitcoin" in this environment rather than tariff headlines. In a rangebound equity market where macro headlines (tariffs) are being ignored, traders look for uncorrelated alpha or alternative stores of value. WATCH/LONG as alternative trading vehicles while equities chop. Dollar strength could suppress these assets.
Tom Sosnoff
Founder and CEO, tastytrade
Sosnoff observes that "every single sell off has been met with buying," including a recent overnight dip of 50 handles that was bought up. He states tariff talk "doesn't move the market as much as it used to." The market has desensitized to geopolitical/tariff noise (unlike in 2024/2025). The underlying flow is structural dip-buying. Therefore, fading knee-jerk reactions to news is the profitable strategy. LONG on dips. A genuine structural shock (not just talk) that breaks the "buy the dip" psychology.
Jimmy Pethokoukis
Economic Policy Analyst at the American Enterprise Institute
Politicians and 2028 presidential hopefuls are becoming "generally very critical" of AI due to job automation fears. He expects AI regulation to be a topic in the State of the Union. Regulatory friction is the enemy of hyper-growth. If strict regulations are proposed (similar to what was attempted with social media but failed), it could compress multiples for the broader AI sector. WATCH for regulatory headlines that could dampen sentiment. Regulation turns out to be toothless or gridlocked.
Up Next
This CNBC video, published February 23, 2026, features Stephanie Link, Tom Sosnoff, Jimmy Pethokoukis discussing NVDA, GE, VRT, PWR, MU, TSLA, SILVER, BTC, GLD, SPY, QQQ, BOTZ. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Stephanie Link, Tom Sosnoff, Jimmy Pethokoukis · Tickers: NVDA, GE, VRT, PWR, MU, TSLA, SILVER, BTC, GLD, SPY, QQQ, BOTZ