Andy Burnham Win Puts UK PM Under Pressure & US-Iran Talks Called Off | The Pulse 6/19/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 19, 2026 at 10:50  |  50:06  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Mark Haefele — Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management
Ruth David — London Bureau Chief, Bloomberg

Summary

The program covers UK political turmoil after Andy Burnham's victory puts pressure on PM Starmer, a delayed US-Iran meeting that adds uncertainty to the interim nuclear deal, and a bullish market outlook from UBS CIO Mark Haefele who sees S&P 500 reaching 8200 by mid-2025 driven by AI capex and a patient Fed. Haefele also expects oil to fall as the Strait of Hormuz reopens and likes North Asian equities as the AI trade broadens. The show also touches on ASML's denial of shipping advanced EUV machines to China and the lingering impact of the Middle East conflict on food supply chains.

  • UK PM Keir Starmer faces calls to resign after Andy Burnham wins a special election, paving way for a leadership challenge.
  • US Vice President Vance delays Switzerland trip, postponing face-to-face Iran nuclear talks.
  • UBS CIO Mark Haefele says the Fed will stay on hold, supporting equities, with S&P 500 seen at 8200 by mid-next year.
  • Haefele expects AI capex to reach $1 trillion by 2028, with memory shortages persisting; semi sector poised to benefit.
  • Haefele advocates diversification into North Asia as the AI trade broadens beyond the US.
  • Oil is expected to decline further as the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Iran's leverage weakens.
  • ASML pushes back against US concerns that an advanced EUV machine reached China in violation of export controls.
  • EU tech commissioner says defense systems should use only European cloud providers, raising questions about US software like Palantir.
Ideas
Mark Haefele Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management 8:09
S&P 500 to 8200 on Fed, AI.
The Fed is on hold and likely to stay there, which is supportive for equities. Strong earnings and massive AI capex spending, expected to reach $1 trillion by 2028, provide further upside. The S&P 500 could reach 8200 by mid-next year.
SPY HIGH
Mark Haefele Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management 10:09
AI capex boom lifts semiconductors.
AI capital expenditure is surging towards $1 trillion by 2028 with no signs of abatement. Memory shortages persist, and the scale of AI spending dwarfs the economic impact of oil. This supports a bullish view on the semiconductor sector.
SMH HIGH
Mark Haefele Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management 13:06
Oil falls as Hormuz reopens.
Oil prices can fall further as the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Iran's ability to keep the strait closed is degrading, and there is broad international pressure to keep it open. The geopolitical risk premium is fading.
WTI MED
Mark Haefele Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management 14:12
North Asia equities benefit from AI broadening.
The AI trade is broadening beyond the US, making North Asian equities attractive. Many clients are over-concentrated in a few US names, and North Asia stands to benefit as the AI theme expands.
North Asia equities MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 19, 2026, features Mark Haefele discussing SPY, SMH, WTI, North Asia equities. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mark Haefele  · Tickers: SPY, SMH, WTI, North Asia equities