Name: When will the extreme concentration on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stop? / Exchange rate 1500 won, the real reason it's not falling | Shin Jungho, Head of LS Securities
Uploaded: 2026-06-19T09:00:02+00:00
Duration: 1243 s

Speakers

Shin Jungho — Head of Research Center, LS Securities

Summary

Shin Jungho, Head of Research Center at LS Securities, analyzes a KOSPI market driven to 9,000 by extreme concentration in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. He expects a near-term consolidation before the index climbs to 10,000, during which Korean financials should attract rotation flows. He also outlines a crude oil rebound to $80, warns that memory stocks may face margin and capex headwinds after strong Q2 earnings, and expects the won to strengthen once Fed rate-cut expectations materialize later in the year.

KOSPI is overextended vs its 60-day average and likely needs a 1-1.5 month consolidation before moving to 10,000.
The extreme index concentration on semiconductors is expected to ease, allowing rotation into laggards.
Korean financial stocks are identified as the prime rotation beneficiary due to strong earnings and shareholder returns.
Crude oil could recover to $80 as supply disruptions, high insurance costs, and US reserve refilling support demand.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix face peak margin and capex concerns after their Q2 earnings releases.
High US rates will keep the won weak near term, but the won may strengthen when Fed cut expectations rise in H2.

Ideas

Shin Jungho Head of Research Center, LS Securities 1:00

KOSPI pulls back, then rallies to 10,000.

The KOSPI has rallied extremely fast on a handful of semiconductor names, pushing it 30% above its 60-day moving average. Historically, such an extended gap has led to a one- to one-and-a-half-month price or time correction during which the extreme concentration eases. After that consolidation, the index is likely to resume its staircase advance and climb toward the 10,000-point level.

Shin Jungho Head of Research Center, LS Securities 4:45

Korean financials benefit from sector rotation.

When the semiconductor rally takes a breather and the market's extreme concentration eases, funds are likely to rotate into laggard sectors that have clear earnings momentum and can deliver shareholder returns. Financial stocks stand out because they are performing well, are able to return capital to shareholders even in a high-rate environment, and offer defensive characteristics, making them the most logical beneficiary of the rotation.

Shin Jungho Head of Research Center, LS Securities 12:07

Crude oil rebound to $80 expected.

Crude oil has dropped quickly to $70 on ceasefire hopes, but the reopened Hormuz shipping route still faces steep insurance costs, damaged production facilities are not yet restored, and the US has rapidly depleted its strategic reserve, which now needs replenishment. These factors create demand that should push oil back up toward the $80 level.

Shin Jungho Head of Research Center, LS Securities 14:00

Memory stocks rally, then face margin pressure.

Memory providers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will report spectacular Q2 earnings, which may initially support their stocks, especially heading into Samsung's earnings. However, peak operating margins (SK Hynix already at 72-73%) are likely to compress as capex rises, and investors will begin questioning whether hyperscalers can sustain their heavy borrowing and spending when interest rates remain high. From mid-July onward, these margin and capex concerns may weigh on the semiconductor names, narrowing the performance gap with the rest of the market.

Shin Jungho Head of Research Center, LS Securities 20:16

Won strengthens when Fed cut expectations rise.

The Korean won remains weak near the 1,500 per dollar level because of structural dollar demand from exporters parking profits abroad, high US rates sustaining dollar demand, Korea's declining share of global GDP, and sluggish foreign direct investment. The won is expected to stay weak while US rates stay high through summer, but if expectations for a Fed rate cut emerge in the second half of the year, the won is likely to strengthen.

When will the extreme concentration on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stop? / Exchange rate 1500 won, the real reason it's not falling | Shin Jungho, Head of LS Securities

Summary

Ideas

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